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Market Brief, North America

US yields remain aloft ahead of non-farm payrolls report

The dollar is rangebound and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds after suffering steep losses in yesterday’s session as strong economic data sent US yields rocketing to a 16-year high. The ADP Research Institute kicked things off by saying US companies added 497,000 jobs in June, almost twice the consensus forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics followed up with data showing a modest increase in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, but countered that with a reduction in continuing claims. A later report said job openings fell to 9.82 million at the end of May, down from an upwardly...

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Unsurprising Fed minutes push yields higher

Odds on another rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were left slightly higher yesterday after a record of June’s discussion showed officials were modestly more hawkish than expected. Staff forecasts pointed to a deceleration in growth and price pressures through the latter half of the year, and there was considerable uncertainty about where the cumulative effects of previous tightening efforts would appear, but “almost all” agreed that rates would need to climb further this year – and some favoured moving more quickly because “momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated and there were few clear signs that...

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Markets retreat as fireworks fade

Financial markets are suffering a modest post-July 4 hangover, with the big risk haven currencies – the dollar, euro, and yen – outperforming their commodity-linked brethren ahead of the North American open.  Risk appetite is broadly weaker after China’s Caixin services sector purchasing manager index fell by more than expected in May, providing more evidence of a softening in consumer sentiment in the world’s second-largest national economy. The index dropped to 53.9 from 57.1 in April, missing forecasts that were set above the 56 threshold, and aligning with similar results from the official services and manufacturing surveys last week. The yuan...

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Slowing consumer demand weighs on US yields, forces dollar into incremental retreat

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed and consumer spending flatlined in May, suggesting that the central bank’s monetary tightening efforts are beginning to take a toll on the economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in May from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates for a 4.7-percent print. The so-called “supercore” measure – services inflation excluding housing and energy services – favoured by Jerome Powell rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, rising at the...

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Stabilizing policy expectations drive volatility lower

Markets are preternaturally calm, with most major pairs trapped in sub-20-pip ranges this morning after policymakers stuck to their “higher for longer” scripts during yesterday’s panel at the European Central Bank’s summit in Sintra, Portugal.  The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey delivered a relatively hawkish message, hammering it home by saying “I’ve always been interested that the market thinks the peak will be short-lived in a world where we’re dealing with more persistent inflation”. Christine Lagarde seemed to suggest that her shop could follow a widely-expected July hike with another in September. And Jerome Powell said a “strong majority” of...

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