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Market Brief, North America

US consumer spending rebounds, supporting yields and the dollar

The dollar is up and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat as benchmark Treasury yields near the highest levels in almost 15 years on stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers. North America US retail spending jumped by more than forecast last month as underlying consumer demand remained strong, keeping monetary tightening expectations aloft. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants climbed 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in July, beating consensus estimates closer to 0.4 percent and rising 3.2 percent over a year prior. Gas station sales climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month as...

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Price action turns choppy on higher yields and Chinese contagion fears

The dollar is little changed after a series of data releases intersected with oil price gains last week to push long-term yields slightly higher – even as expectations for a pause at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting remained intact. More broadly, risk appetite remains relatively subdued and commodity-linked currencies are softening as troubles in the Chinese property sector keep global demand expectations under pressure and drive raw materials prices modestly lower. North America Tomorrow’s retail sales report looms as the next potential catalyst for dollar moves, with major uncertainties remaining around the durability of consumer spending in the world’s largest...

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Rebounding producer prices lift the dollar

The dollar is set to end the week on a slightly stronger note after July’s producer price report solidified expectations for a continued hawkish bias from Federal Reserve policymakers – even as other indicators point toward a cooling in inflation pressures. Yields are modestly higher across the front end of the Treasury curve, equities are seeing outflows, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars – along with the Mexican peso – are inching lower against the greenback. North America US producer prices climbed more than expected in July, putting pressure on policymakers to avoid sending the “all clear”...

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Softer US inflation sends dollar lower

Markets are doubling down on “soft landing” bets this morning after US consumer inflation slowed as expected, reducing the need for further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Equity futures are up, Treasury yields are down slightly on the front end of the curve, and the dollar is slipping ahead of the North American open. North America Headline consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the the 3.3 percent and 0.2...

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Strong consumer demand and softening inflation bolster US “soft landing” hopes

With American households honouring their time-honoured role in acting as global consumers-of-last-resort and inflation pressures continuing to subside, financial markets are seeing a broad-based rise in risk-taking activity this morning. Equity futures are pointing to a strong open, the dollar is ticking lower, and high-beta currencies are outperforming after a raft of softer inflation data added to yesterday’s strong second-quarter growth print in suggesting that the US economy is shrugging off the impact of higher rates – and could continue to power global growth in the months to come. The yen is up modestly and global yields are higher after the...

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