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Market Brief, North America

21 Mar 2024

Central Bankers Turn Dovish, Markets Rally

Financial markets are in an ebullient mood after Federal Reserve officials said they still expect to cut rates three times this year, with disinflationary forces expected to resume in coming months. All three major North American equity indices closed at record highs and risk appetites roared back yesterday when Chair Powell avoided pushing back on easier financial conditions, and said recent price readings “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two percent. I don’t think that story has changed”. Markets tend to focus on the shark closest...

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19 Mar 2024

When Carry Met Rally

We’ll have what they’re having. North American equity futures are setting up for a solid open after Nvidia Corp. unveiled a significantly faster artificial intelligence processor, Treasury yields are stable on hopes the Federal Reserve will leave its dovish forward guidance intact in tomorrow’s decision, and risk appetite is improving in currency markets as conditions for the global carry trade remain supportive. The Bank of Japan ended a decades-long experiment with unconventional monetary policy last night, and markets shrugged. Policymakers voted by a 7-2 margin to lift the key target for short-term rates to a range of 0-to-0.1 percent, stop...

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18 Mar 2024

March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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15 Mar 2024

Price Action Muted As Inflation Worries Re-Emerge

Chastened investors are heading into the weekend on a cautious footing after two inflation readings suggested that price pressures in the US economy remain stubbornly elevated, further undermining hopes the Federal Reserve could soon begin cutting rates. Markets tumbled during yesterday’s session after data showed producer prices increased in February by the most in six months as the cost of goods like gasoline and food surged. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer price index for final demand increased 0.6 percent from January, up 1.6 percent from a year earlier, marking the fastest annual advance since September. Consumer...

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14 Mar 2024

Currency Volatility Flattens In Run-Up To Fed Meeting

Happy Pi Day, one of the days on which markets behave irrationally. The other days are… all of them. The dollar is holding steady ahead of the last pieces of data that could sway policymakers at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Treasury yields are essentially unchanged, with the ten-year yield up roughly 11 basis points this week, equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the open, and most major currencies remain caught within almost-invisible trading ranges. Numbers due for release this morning should show strong consumer demand keeping inflation pressures at a low simmer. Consensus estimates suggest that...

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