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Market Brief, North America

17 Nov 2023

Global bond rally continues, weighing on dollar

Easing expectations are growing across global financial markets after another round of softer-than-anticipated data led investors to pull implied rate cuts further forward in 2024. In the US, equity futures are firm, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is on the defensive after reports yesterday morning showed import prices sliding by more than economists forecast while the number of people submitting new claims for jobless benefits began to climb in earnest. Walmart, arguably a better consumer spending bellwether than any sentiment survey or economic forecaster, released a more pessimistic earnings outlook, saying it saw signs of restraint from households...

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15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

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13 Nov 2023

Majors settle into ranges ahead of data-intensive week

Ahead of a week in which hard data will take precedence over central bank jawboning, equity indices are slightly softer, oil prices are holding firm, Treasury yields are flat, and all major currencies look firmly rangebound. Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore signs of dysfunction in the US political system: The dollar remains unbowed after the ratings firm Moody’s lowered its outlook on US debt to “negative” from “stable”, putting it on course toward joining Standard & Poor’s and Fitch in downgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating. And with newly-minted Speaker Mike Johnson’s can-kicking bill likely to face a vote...

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10 Nov 2023

Risk appetite fades after Powell shuts door on doves

Foreign exchange markets are trading with a mild risk-off tone after yesterday’s disappointing Treasury auction and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell helped lift yields and bolster demand for the dollar. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly softer open, commodity prices are still trending downward, and rate-sensitive currencies—like the Canadian dollar—are back on the defensive. Yields reversed higher yesterday morning after a $24-billion auction of 30-year Treasuries failed to meet sufficient demand, with a “tail”—the extra premium demanded by investors to hold long-term paper—exceeding 5 basis points. The pension funds and insurers which typically absorb the...

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