Market Brief, North America

In yesterday’s Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect rates to begin coming down in the near term, but acknowledged the need to “begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year,” and said that central bankers remain “squarely focused” on their dual mandate. Market participants – who had been alert to the possibility of a pushback against easing financial conditions – breathed a sigh of relief, sending yields and the dollar lower for a fifth consecutive session. Broadly speaking, softer data releases and consistent messaging from Fed officials over the last week have...

Happy Friday. A relief rally, triggered by yesterday’s on-consensus personal consumption expenditures release, is losing momentum across financial markets this morning. North American equity futures are in neutral gear, two- and ten-year Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is essentially unchanged relative to its major counterparts. The “soft landing” thesis has dodged another bullet. With yesterday’s strong headline print largely discounted in markets after hotter-than-expected consumer and producer price releases, investors breathed a collective sigh of relief when their worst fears went unrealized, and were further calmed when the Federal Reserve’s Bostic and Goolsbee later indicated a willingness to...

Happy Leap Day to all who celebrate. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer price growth – and therefore the world’s most important inflation yardstick – set for release in less than half an hour, global markets are holding their collective breath. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is thought to have doubled to 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January, with the gain flagged in advance by stronger-than-forecast increases in consumer and producer price indices. Ten-year Treasury yields are sitting near 4.31 percent, up a little over 4 basis points, equity futures are seeing incremental losses ahead of...