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Market Brief, North America

28 Mar 2024

Markets Cut Risk Into Holiday Weekend

Trading ranges are tight and liquidity levels are low across financial markets this morning as participants square positions into what could be an eventful holiday weekend. Short-term Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are up slightly, and equity futures are edging into a softer session ahead of tomorrow’s US personal consumption expenditures print – which will land amid a Good Friday market closure. Jerome Powell is also scheduled to participate in a discussion at the San Francisco Federal Reserve’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy conference at 11:30 tomorrow morning, raising the risk of dramatic moves when markets reopen next week...

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27 Mar 2024

Caution Prevails as First Quarter Winds Down

Financial markets remain broadly rangebound this morning as month- and quarter-end position squaring drives investors to cut risk. The dollar is essentially unchanged, Treasury yields and crude prices are softening, and North American equity bourses are setting up for a weaker open. More evidence of strength in the US economy was delivered yesterday. Data releases showed home prices climbing at the fastest annual pace since 2022 in January, durable goods orders rising more than expected in February, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence ticking higher in March. The “no-landing” consensus among economists keeps growing more pervasive, bolstered by...

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25 Mar 2024

Liquidity Ebbs Into Holiday-Shortened Week

The trade-weighted dollar is holding steady and equity futures are poised to open lower as market participants prepare for a lower-intensity, holiday-thinned trading week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, oil prices are up modestly, and risk-sensitive units like the Canadian dollar are trading sideways ahead of a week dominated by the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator – when North American markets will be closed for Good Friday. Thin liquidity could boost the appeal of safe haven currencies in the days ahead, but some mean reversion could play out over a longer time horizon. With the global economy...

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22 Mar 2024

Dollar Strikes Back

Defying market expectations yet again, the greenback is trampling everything in its path as it heads toward a second week of gains. With global central banks on a synchronous easing trajectory, turbulence in China weighing on currencies across Asia, and US equity markets marching to new highs, rate differentials and global capital flows remain clearly dollar-supportive. Mexico’s peso is retracing some of its earlier losses, but remains weaker after the Banco de Mexico delivered a widely expected rate cut, and said it would take a data-dependent approach to future decisions. Voting by a 4-to-1 margin, policymakers yesterday opted to lower...

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21 Mar 2024

Central Bankers Turn Dovish, Markets Rally

Financial markets are in an ebullient mood after Federal Reserve officials said they still expect to cut rates three times this year, with disinflationary forces expected to resume in coming months. All three major North American equity indices closed at record highs and risk appetites roared back yesterday when Chair Powell avoided pushing back on easier financial conditions, and said recent price readings “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two percent. I don’t think that story has changed”. Markets tend to focus on the shark closest...

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