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Market Brief, North America

23 Apr 2024

Currencies Stabilise as Expected Growth Differentials Narrow

The dollar is holding steady and Treasuries are stable ahead of auctions that could see yields hold above the 5-percent threshold for the first time since November. The US will sell a record $69 billion in two-year notes later today, followed by $70 billion in five-year paper tomorrow, and another $44 billion in seven-year maturities on Thursday, testing investor demand for yields that could look attractive if the Federal Reserve eases aggressively in the latter half of the year – but might look too cheap if rate cuts are further delayed. The “term premium” – the extra compensation investors demand...

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22 Apr 2024

Markets Recover As Geopolitical Risk Premia Evaporate

The dollar is retreating and Treasury yields are slipping as geopolitical tensions ease and traders shift focus toward more prosaic market drivers. After a weekend in which Israel and Iran refrained from further escalation, North American equity indices are setting up for a positive open, oil and safe-haven gold prices are heading lower, and a range of major currencies are inching higher against the greenback. With Federal Reserve officials entering their pre-decision blackout period, corporate earnings releases, government bond auctions, and a series of economic data releases look likely to take centre stage in driving foreign exchange outcomes through the...

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19 Apr 2024

Israeli Strike Triggers Short-Lived Volatility Spike

Foreign exchange markets are slowly reverting to normal after suffering a major selloff last night when Israel launched strikes against targets near the Iranian city of Isfahan – home to facilities associated with the country’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment site. Risk-sensitive currencies plunged amid a wholesale flight to safety as initial reports flooded in, but reaction began to fade as officials in both countries downplayed the action, portraying it as a limited retaliatory strike aimed at avoiding an escalatory cycle that could push the Middle East closer toward war. Iranian state media claimed air defence systems had...

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15 Apr 2024

Calm Returns As Geopolitical Shocks Fade

Market reaction to the weekend’s Iranian attack on Israel has been muted. Intentionally or not, Tehran telegraphed its actions well in advance, most of the missiles and drones were downed before reaching military targets, and its diplomats signalled a desire to de-escalate things further, telling the UN “the matter can be deemed concluded”. Israel’s war cabinet authorised retaliatory strikes, but a sternly-worded message from the White House appears to have put reprisals on the back burner for now. Longer-term escalation remains a risk, but investors generally struggle to assign probabilities to more complex, path-dependent outcomes, so the conflict looks likely...

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12 Apr 2024

Calm After the Storm Brings Currency Volatility Down

Treasury yields are stabilising and the dollar is recovering ground after losing a little altitude during yesterday’s session when a closely-watched input cost index climbed by less than expected. The producer price index for final demand rose just 0.2 percent month-over-month in March, with a third consecutive increase in services costs obscuring a cooling in many of the components that go into the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Taken in combination with Wednesday’s consumer price print, the data suggest that the personal consumption expenditures index will rise somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis when the next update...

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