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Market Brief, North America

05 Apr 2024

Markets Lick Wounds After Sharp Selloff

Markets are struggling to regain their footing after a rise in geopolitical tensions triggered a classic flight to safety. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies tumbled yesterday afternoon as investors sought refuge in bonds, the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and dollar. Benchmark crude prices jumped to the highest levels since October after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a meeting of the security cabinet soon after a phone call with US President Joe Biden, said “Iran has been acting against us for years, directly and via proxies. And, therefore, Israel acts against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively… We will...

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04 Apr 2024

Sentiment Improves On Stabilising Rate Expectations

Risk appetite is improving this morning after yesterday’s softer-than-expected price data and relatively dovish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell helped ratify expectations for rate cuts in the remainder of the year. Ten year yields are holding near 4.35 percent, the greenback is on the defensive, and the euro and pound are advancing ahead of the North American equity market open. Treasury yields slipped and the dollar suffered its biggest drop in a month when the Institute for Supply Management’s services index dropped to 51.4 from 52.6 in February, with the “prices paid’ sub index falling to the lowest...

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28 Mar 2024

Markets Cut Risk Into Holiday Weekend

Trading ranges are tight and liquidity levels are low across financial markets this morning as participants square positions into what could be an eventful holiday weekend. Short-term Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are up slightly, and equity futures are edging into a softer session ahead of tomorrow’s US personal consumption expenditures print – which will land amid a Good Friday market closure. Jerome Powell is also scheduled to participate in a discussion at the San Francisco Federal Reserve’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy conference at 11:30 tomorrow morning, raising the risk of dramatic moves when markets reopen next week...

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27 Mar 2024

Caution Prevails as First Quarter Winds Down

Financial markets remain broadly rangebound this morning as month- and quarter-end position squaring drives investors to cut risk. The dollar is essentially unchanged, Treasury yields and crude prices are softening, and North American equity bourses are setting up for a weaker open. More evidence of strength in the US economy was delivered yesterday. Data releases showed home prices climbing at the fastest annual pace since 2022 in January, durable goods orders rising more than expected in February, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence ticking higher in March. The “no-landing” consensus among economists keeps growing more pervasive, bolstered by...

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25 Mar 2024

Liquidity Ebbs Into Holiday-Shortened Week

The trade-weighted dollar is holding steady and equity futures are poised to open lower as market participants prepare for a lower-intensity, holiday-thinned trading week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, oil prices are up modestly, and risk-sensitive units like the Canadian dollar are trading sideways ahead of a week dominated by the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator – when North American markets will be closed for Good Friday. Thin liquidity could boost the appeal of safe haven currencies in the days ahead, but some mean reversion could play out over a longer time horizon. With the global economy...

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