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Market Brief, North America

14 Feb 2025

Dollar Retreats as ‘Tariff Exhaustion’ Kicks In, and Retail Sales Slump

The dollar is trading near a two-month low this morning after Donald Trump delivered a long-threatened “reciprocal” tariff plan that was distinctly short on tradeable detail. In an extensively-teased announcement from the Oval Office, the president signed a memo directing federal agencies to investigate raising import taxes on shipments from countries with “unfair” economic barriers in place against US exports—things like tariffs, regulations, subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and domestic value-added taxes—but stopped short of imposing any deadlines or naming the product categories and countries that could be targeted. “On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will...

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13 Feb 2025

Sticky Producer Price Inflation Leaves Markets Largely Unmoved

Input price inflation rose at faster pace than anticipated in the United States last month, but details under the hood indicated a moderation in some services categories, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator could slow in month-over-month terms when it is reported next week. Producer prices for final demand climbed 0.4 percent in January relative to the prior month, topping forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase, and rising 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, but airline fares and medical care costs declined, putting pressure on the key components that feed through into the core personal consumption expenditures index....

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12 Feb 2025

Inflation Heats Up, Clobbering Fed Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, bolstering the case for a cautious approach to easing from the Federal Reserve—and raising the odds on a rate hike at some point this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline all-items consumer price index climbed 3.0 percent year-over-year in January, accelerating slightly from the 2.9 percent pace set in December, and rose 0.5 percent from the previous month. The core measure—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in January from the same period last year, and rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, marking...

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11 Feb 2025

Markets Steady As Event Risks Loom

Currency traders are treading cautiously after Donald Trump raised taxes on steel and aluminum imports into the United States, and price action is slowing ahead of this morning’s testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and tomorrow’s inflation update. North American equity futures are setting up for a negative open, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is up roughly 2 basis points, and the dollar is consolidating gains achieved in the run-up to last night’s tariff announcement. President Trump signed two executive orders last night imposing 25-percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum products, saying “It’s a big deal. This is...

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10 Feb 2025

Markets Look Through Renewed Tariff Threats

The dollar is up modestly against its major rivals after Donald Trump verbally threatened to increase tariffs for the third weekend in a row. In a press briefing conducted on Air Force One ahead of yesterday’s Super Bowl, the president told reporters that he would unveil new reciprocal tariffs—levies designed to match foreign protectionist measures—in the coming days, and will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all US trading partners today. Reciprocal tariffs—which are designed to match protectionist measures in other countries—are generally well supported on both sides of the aisle, and are not terribly impactful...

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