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Market Brief, North America

21 Jun 2024

Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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20 Jun 2024

Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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18 Jun 2024

Liquidity Dissipates Ahead of US Holiday

It’s a little weird out there this morning: Ahead of the North American open, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing to further gains after both indices hit record closing highs in yesterday’s session, and investors are positioning for a rebound in US retail sales volumes, along with an increase in uncertainty levels as a series of Federal Reserve officials make public appearances before tomorrow’s holiday market closure. Amid thin liquidity conditions, Treasury yields are inching higher, the dollar is advancing, and most major currency pairs are oscillating within narrow trading ranges as participants move to the sidelines....

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17 Jun 2024

European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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14 Jun 2024

Euro Crisis Flashbacks Hit Markets

Traders are in sell-first, ask-questions-later mode and the euro is coming under sustained pressure as negative rhetoric surrounding the upcoming French election heats up. The dollar and yen are climbing on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields are inching lower, and North American equity futures are looking subdued ahead of what could evolve into a risk-off day in broader financial markets. Franco-German bond spreads are blowing out after French finance minister Bruno le Maire warned a victory for left wing parties in the upcoming snap election could see the country exiting the European Union, triggering “economic collapse” and a “guaranteed downgrade” from...

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