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Market Brief, North America

04 Oct 2024

Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom

Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing after the biggest weekly advance in six months, Treasury yields are steady, and North American equity futures are flat Uncertainty is high. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 150,000 jobs last month – a pace that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent – but forecasts are widely dispersed, from 70,000 on the low end to 225,000 on the high end. A surprise could radically reshape expectations for November’s Federal...

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03 Oct 2024

Dollar Keeps Climbing the ‘Wall of Worry’

The dollar is holding near a two-week high, boosted by safe haven demand and a diminishing sense of conviction in a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Oil prices are still grinding higher as investors await an expected Israeli retaliation for Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack, and risk appetite remains suppressed across the financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are sitting on circa-1.5-percent gains, North American equity markets are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is the only major currency sitting on gains for the last day. Incoming...

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02 Oct 2024

Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode

Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage to infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated, Treasuries are in demand, and the dollar is holding its gains after the attack triggered a flight to safety – but trading ranges are narrowing, and price action could easily reverse if the geopolitical escalatory cycle shows signs of slowing in the days ahead. The threat of a retaliatory attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could keep prices somewhat elevated, but the risk of a sustained...

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27 Sep 2024

Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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26 Sep 2024

Ebullience Returns

A sense of optimism is powering financial markets forward this morning, with China promising more economic stimulus, a raft of Federal Reserve speakers likely to deliver relatively-dovish messages in the hours to come, and reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil production. Treasuries are flat, equity futures are pointing higher ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, with the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all eking out half-percentage point gains relative to yesterday’s close. In a highly unusual September announcement, the Chinese politburo said it would mobilise “necessary fiscal...

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