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Market Brief, North America

14 Nov 2024

Dollar Stages Comeback On Political Risks and Inflation Jitters

And it’s back. The dollar is extending its post-election rally this morning, gaining against all of its major counterparts – excepting the safe-haven Swiss franc – as markets continue to adjust to a future in which US policymakers maintain expansionary fiscal policies, raise barriers to trade, and fold the security umbrella that has underpinned global growth since the Second World War. A series of nomination announcements in the last two days – including former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, NATO-sceptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, and firebrand congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General – have...

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13 Nov 2024

Currencies Trade Mixed Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are struggling against dangerous cross currents this morning as traders grapple with the impact Donald Trump’s policies might have on inflation, capital costs, and global trade. In a series of announcements published over the last two days, the president-elect appointed a number of loyalists to key positions, suggesting that he intends to follow through on campaign pledges that could raise prices, force the Federal Reserve to ease more slowly, and hammer trade-dependent economies outside the United States. Yields are pushing higher, equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, and the greenback is trading on a mixed...

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12 Nov 2024

Trump Trade Recovers, Pushes Dollar Higher

The almighty greenback is trading near a four-month high against its major rivals as market participants double down on the ‘Trump trade’ ahead of January’s inauguration date. With Republicans expected to cement control over both houses of Congress in the days ahead and early cabinet appointments exhibiting clear signs of a hawkish bent, the president-elect is positioned to implement an uncompromising policy agenda focused on lowering taxes, cutting immigration, rolling back the regulatory state, and raising tariffs against a broad range of trading partners – a mix that could raise inflation expectations and widen rate differentials in the dollar’s favour....

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08 Nov 2024

Currency Market Mean Reversion Continues, Weakening Dollar

The “Trump trade” that animated currency markets after Tuesday’s presidential election continues to dissipate this morning. The dollar’s post-election rally is now almost fully unwound, the Mexican peso and its emerging market brethren are broadly higher, and most major currencies – including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen – are either above, or just a few basis points below key psychological levels that could support further upside. Treasury yields are slightly lower after the Federal Reserve kept its options open in yesterday’s decision. Officials cut rates by a quarter percentage point and made semantic modifications to the accompanying statement...

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07 Nov 2024

Trump Trade Eases, Dollar Retreats

Market momentum is fading this morning after investors speed-ran the “Trump trade” in yesterday’s session. The trade-weighted dollar is retreating after recording its best day in more than two years, with the Canadian dollar, euro, pound, and yen all up roughly half a percentage point while the Mexican peso – widely considered a proxy for US isolationism risks – trades above pre-election levels. Treasury yields are easing somewhat, North American equity futures are consolidating gains, and oil prices are weakening. The pound is pushing higher after the Bank of England cut interest rates for a second time but raised its...

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