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Market Brief, North America

Markets Plunge as Trump Administration Steps Up Threats Against Fed

Financial markets are getting hit again this morning, with US equity indices, Treasuries, and the dollar all tumbling in synchrony as investors assess new threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence against an increasingly-forbidding growth backdrop in the world’s largest economy. The greenback dropped more than 1 percent on a trade-weighted basis in overnight markets after the Trump administration stepped up its attacks on Jerome Powell, threatening to demolish the Fed’s hard-won independence from political pressure. In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform last week, Trump argued that interest rates should be cut, saying “Powell’s termination cannot come...

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Tariff Confusion Leaves Markets Rudderless

Financial markets are staging a modest relief rally after the Trump administration seemed to quietly grant a partial tariff carveout to smartphones and consumer electronics – helping ease fears of a sharp rise in US consumer prices. North American equity futures are setting up for an advance at the open, Treasury yields are incrementally lower, and the dollar is cruising toward a fifth day of losses. Some of Asia’s biggest export categories will be excluded from the government’s new tariff regime, according to a notice posted late Friday night by US Customs and Border Protection, suggesting that the administration is...

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Extreme Turbulence Grips Global Markets

Measures of financial stress are easing this morning after an absolutely wild night in global markets. The dollar is consolidating its losses after enduring something resembling a “flash crash” as Asian markets opened yesterday evening, the S&P 500 is recovering from a circa-3-percent move, and ten-year Treasury yields are stabilising near 4.8 percent after rising by the most in a week since the late eighties. The trade war between the United States and China is still escalating. On Wednesday, President Trump said he was imposing a 125-percent tariff on imports from China, and the White House yesterday clarified that this...

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Relief Rally Runs Out of Steam Despite Tame US Inflation Data

Stock-index futures are edging lower and the dollar is weakening once more as the initial optimism sparked by yesterday’s tariff reversal yields to a more measured assessment of the risks still facing the US and world economies. Equity futures are setting up for a circa-1.5-percent loss at the North American open, ten-year Treasury yields are stuck near the 4.3 percent mark, and the greenback is heading toward a third day of losses against its major counterparts. The safe-haven Japanese yen is in the ascendant, and the euro is climbing after European Union officials announced plans to postpone retaliatory measures against...

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Volatility Soars As Global Trade War Escalates

Volatility continues to sweep across asset classes after the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” and retaliatory tariffs took effect last night, ratcheting American import taxes up to levels last seen in the immediate aftermath of the Civil War. The freezing of trade flows between the US and China bears a stark resemblance to the breakdown in relations between the West and the Soviet Union that led to the Cold War. US tariffs on imports from China have soared: with the average tariff rate sitting close to 20 percent ahead of Trump’s inauguration, and 10 percent added in February, another 10 percent in...

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