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Market Brief, North America

Currency Traders Brace for Tumultuous Week

Foreign exchange markets are looking deeply rangebound this morning as 2024’s last full trading week kicks off. Most major currencies are trading within a quarter percentage point of Friday’s close, Treasury yields are stable, and North American equity markets are setting up for modest losses at the open. The euro is trading on a slightly softer footing after Moody’s Ratings cut France’s credit rating, warning that growing political dysfunction could endanger the country’s borrowing capacity. According to a statement released by the agency on Friday, “the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. This is because...

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ECB Cuts, US Price Pressures Rise, Dollar Holds Steady

Currency markets are seeing a modest mean-reversion move this morning, with the dollar holding firm against most of its major rivals. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.28 percent mark on evidence of strengthening inflation pressures, equity futures are setting up for incremental losses at the open, and commodity prices are generally trading sideways as optimism surrounding China’s stimulus efforts fades. The franc is trading near a two-week low – but is still near a two-decade high against the euro – after the Swiss National Bank delivered a larger-than-expected half percentage point rate cut in this morning’s decision. With...

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US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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Rising Unemployment Hits Both US and Canadian Dollars

The US job creation engine came back to life in November after October’s strike- and hurricane-related slowdown, but the rebound likely wasn’t strong enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added in the month – topping the 220,000-consensus forecast – and October’s headline print was revised up to 36,000 from the 12,000 previously estimated. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, holding at the pace set in the prior month. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent however, adding to signs of broader labour market...

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Markets Steady After South Korean Shock

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying the military on South Korean streets. The apparent autogolpe* attempt was quickly undone by lawmakers in an emergency vote – and the currency is now almost fully recovered – but markets have grown more uncertain about the future of...

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