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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Market wobbles return

• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs. Growth in Australia set to slow. US Fed looks to be in no hurry to cut again. AU jobs report out today. Global Trends The positive sentiment that ran through markets over recent days gave way overnight, with the harsh reality of the situation in the Middle East and a few macro factors dampening the mood once again. European and US equities declined with the S&P500 shedding ~1.4%, while...

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RBA’s inflation worry

• Improved mood. Despite ongoing Middle East issues & high oil prices risk sentiment has improved. Softer USD & a RBA hike supports the AUD.• RBA hikes. Another 25bp rate rise delivered yesterday. Inflation pressures point to another move. Markets already pricing that in. Growth set to slow. Global Trends The market mood has picked up over the past couple of sessions, as illustrated by the uptick in equities (US S&P500 +0.3%) and modest dip in bond yields (the US 10yr rate declined ~2bps) overnight. However, the underlying issues that previously weighed on people’s minds remain, especially the precarious situation...

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Middle East & RBA in focus this week

• Market nerves. Higher oil prices & Middle East developments dampened risk sentiment on Friday. USD firmer. NZD & AUD underperform.• Macro events. Central banks in the spotlight this week. High chance of a RBA rate hike. But its not guaranteed. AUD volatility around the RBA likely. Global Trends Risk sentiment remained negative at the end of last week with the situation in the Middle East and jump in oil prices continuing to unnerve investors. The conflict is entering its third week and shows limited signs of letting up. The US continues to bolster its military presence in the region,...

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Oil prices still dictating terms

• Oil jolt. Another jump in oil prices weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, USD firmer. NZD weaker. AUD underperforms after its strong run.• Twists & turns. Markets pricing a supply risk premium in oil. More volatility likely. RBA next week with chances of a rate hike now sitting at ~70%. Global Trends Middle East developments continue to be in the driver’s seat. Sentiment remained negative overnight with the jump in oil prices dampening the market mood. Brent crude oil is back above ~US$101/brl, a ~8.5% lift from where it was tracking yesterday, and ~74% above levels it was at in...

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Oil volatility & AUD outperforms

• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range. RBA Dep. Gov ‘hawkish’ yesterday. Will it move next week? More than 2 hikes now priced in by September. Global Trends After a torrid end to last week and negative start on Monday sentiment has improved over the past few days. Volatility has continued with the situation in the Middle East still tricky to navigate. However, while there are still underlying issues in place traders (as...

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