Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

• Holding up. Markets held onto yesterday’s gains stemming from the US/Iran ceasefire news. However there wasn’t much additional follow through in FX.• AUD & NZD. AUD near top of its ~2-week range. But lingering issues are a headwind. RBNZ’s ‘hawkish’ vibes may help NZD recoup more lost ground. Global Trends Risk sentiment has remained positive over the past 24hrs on the back of yesterday’s US/Iran ceasefire news. However, in a reflection of how fragile the situation still is most asset classes remained range-bound overnight after yesterday’s knee-jerk repricing as the initial headlines came out. That said, there have still...

• US/Iran ceasefire. News of a ceasefire has boosted risk sentiment. Equity futures higher, oil lower, USD weaker. AUD & NZD at multi-week highs.• Lingering issues. Developments are a positive. But economic aftershocks of events still in the pipeline. RBNZ meets today. No change in rates expected. Global Trends Markets have been on edge to see if President Trump crystallizes his ramped-up threats of strikes against infrastructure sites across Iran (or the “whole civilization” as he posted overnight) or if this was another TACO event (i.e. Trump Always Chickens Out). The US had been turning up its verbal pressure, and...

• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water to go under the bridge. Impacts of energy supply shock yet to show. More bursts of volatility likely over coming weeks. Global Trends After a challenging few weeks for risk sentiment, markets ended March on a more positive note. As has been the case for the past month developments in the Middle East have been in the driver’s seat. Hopes the conflict with Iran may be heading towards a...

• Conflict concerns. Risk sentiment negative. Oil prices higher. Equities lower. USD edging up. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. AUD ~4.7% from its March peak.• Global economy. More volatility likely. Impact on world economy from energy supply shock still in the pipeline. Cyclical/growth-linked assets under pressure. Global Trends Middle East related nervousness kept sentiment negative at the end of last week. Worries the conflict (which is now in its 5th week, and showing no signs of improving) will generate a “stagflationary” environment for the world economy (i.e. higher inflation and slower growth) are front of mind. The Strait of...

• Negative vibes. Ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, oil & yields higher. USD firmer. AUD under pressure.• Twists & turns. Situation in Middle East remains uncertain. More volatility likely. Impact on world economy from energy supply shock still in its infancy. Global Trends Middle East related concerns weighed on risk sentiment once again with markets questioning the chance of a diplomatic solution to end the conflict. According to various reports, the US has proposed a 15-point peace plan and is aiming for a quick resolution, while Iran responded with its own 5-point. The...