Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

• Upbeat mood. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities & bond yields ticked up on the back of some positive data. AUD & NZD also rose.• US tariffs. Legality of President Trump’s tariffs is before the US Supreme Court. Market odds of a decision in Pres. Trump’s favour fell overnight.• Data flow. US Government Shutdown still in place. Official stats on hold. Bank of England could cut rates again tonight. US Fed members also speaking. Global Trends Sentiment rebounded overnight with the bout of risk aversion stemming from equity market valuation concerns across the tech/AI sectors fading. These issues remain in...

• Market swings. A bout of risk aversion overnight. Valuation concerns weighed on equities. Bond yields dipped. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• RBA hold. No change in rates by RBA yesterday. Updated forecasts & guidance suggest there is a chance no more cuts are delivered, in our view.• US data. US Government Shutdown still in place. Private sector stats in focus. ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. This may generate more vol. Global Trends A burst of “risk off” negative market sentiment has washed through global markets over the past 24hrs. A modestly weak day yesterday in...

• Upbeat tone. US equities end the week & month on positive footing. USD ticked higher. AUD & NZD drifted back. AUD a bit firmer on a few cross-rates.• RBA meeting. Given CPI RBA expected to hold (Tues). Near-term inflation forecasts to be revised up. Will RBA close the door on more cuts?• Event radar. In addition to the RBA, NZ jobs report due (Weds). In the US, official data may be delayed, so things like ADP employment are in focus. Global Trends It was a relatively quiet end to last week and October with modest net moves across most...

• Fed gyrations. US Fed cut rates but Chair Powell pushed back on views it will go again in December. Higher US yields helped the USD intra-day.• AU CPI. Sizeable upside surprise in Q3 AU inflation. RBA expected to stay on hold. We think this should be AUD supportive over the medium-term.• Macro events. BoJ meets today. ECB holds court tonight. Also on the radar is a meeting between President’s Trump and Xi. Global Trends Ahead of today’s meeting between President’s Trump and Xi (from ~1pm AEDT) central banks were in focus overnight. Outside of bond yields there were relatively...

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...