Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

• Consolidation. Modest burst of vol. following a benign US CPI report. US equities ticked up. Oil dipped. AUD range bound. NZD underperformed.• US Fed. Softer US inflation & cracks in the jobs market ease the pressure for the US Fed to hike. US producer prices due tonight & retail sales out on Friday. Global Trends There was a modest burst of intra-session volatility overnight, induced by a benign and as predicted US CPI inflation report, but the net swings across markets were rather muted. US equities ticked up slightly (S&P500 +0.3%), however this comes after a couple of softer...

• Consolidation. Limited news flow constrained market moves. Oil ticked up, US equities dipped a bit. AUD tracked sideways after RBA held steady.• Macro pulse. No change by RBA, but kept door open for more, if required. US CPI tonight. US inflation may trigger some vol. as rate expectations adjust. Global Trends There was little fresh geopolitical or economic news released overnight, hence market moves were rather subdued. Middle East headlines were mixed with the mediator between the US/Iran suggesting the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz, yet at the same time...

• Holding on. Oil prices rise with no further US/Iran progress concerning markets. Bond yields tick up. AUD & NZD drifted back a little.• RBA meeting. No change in interest rates expected. But the RBA may keep the door open to more tightening. US CPI & retail sales out later this week. Global Trends Outside of oil prices, which rose by nearly ~5% (the 4th straight daily rise) on the back of no further progress with regards to the US/Iran situation or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, markets generally consolidated yesterday. US equities eased only slightly (S&P500 -0.1%, NASDAQ...

• Market wobbles. Fading optimism about the latest US/Iran deal pushed up oil prices. US bond yields higher. USD firmer. AUD & NZD slipped back.• Data pulse. US jobs report in focus tonight. Data could generate a binary market reaction. RBA next week. No policy change anticipated. Global Trends A few renewed, albeit modest, wobbles across markets with Middle East related news a factor. Optimism the US and Iran might reach a sustainable deal has been shaken, and there have been flare ups across the region. Reported attacks by Houthis against forces in Yemen suggest the conflict may be widening....

• Upbeat vibes. Positive US/Iran rhetoric. Oil prices lower, US equities higher. USD on backfoot. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD outperform.• Data pulse. US ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. US jobs report out later this week. Potential for renewed bursts of market volatility. Global Trends The more upbeat risk sentiment that came through at the end of July have continued over the past few sessions. US equities rose overnight with the ~1.8% gain in the S&P500 overshadowed by a ~2.6% lift in the tech-focused NASDAQ, its first back-to-back gain of 2% or more since April 2025. A...