Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the past few days. Monthly US jobs report released tonight. Fed rate hike pricing could shift again. Global Trends After a positive end to Q2 there were a few modest wobbles across markets overnight. European and US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ (-0.7%) underperforming the broader S&P500 (-0.2%). Long-end bond yields ticked up a fraction with the US 10yr rate tracking near ~4.48%, a little above the midpoint...

• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today. Later this week US Fed Chair Warsh speaks, the ISM is due, & non-farm payrolls are released. Global Trends After the recent bout of risk aversion which saw US equities decline and the USD strengthen last week, markets have started this week on a more positive footing. The US S&P500 rose overnight (+1.2%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+2.1%). ‘Glass half full’ equities bounced despite lingering ‘valuation’ concerns,...

• Holding on. Consolidation across most markets after the recent turbulence. USD treads water. AUD hovering near ~$0.69, ~5% from its May peak.• Data flow. AU jobs rebound in May, but that only unwound the April falls. More doubts RBA will hike again. US data firm. US Fed rate hikes underpriced? Global Trends Following the recent bouts of turbulence, there was a relative sense of calm and modest moves across markets overnight. US equities were choppy with the tech-focused NASDAQ slipping back again (-0.5%) in part due to heavyweight stock Apple shedding ~6% after announcing its product price rises. Elsewhere,...

• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian jobs report due today. We think the cross-currents point to more downside risks for the AUD. Global Trends Markets have been on edge for the past few days with a bout of risk aversion washing through. Equities have fallen back. The US S&P500 has lost ground for three straight sessions, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming. The NASDAQ has declined by ~4% so far this week, however...

• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh. Global Trends It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat positively to the news that a deal has (finally) been struck between the US/Iran. It isn’t a final deal, rather only a Memorandum of Understanding for a 60-day ‘ceasefire’ that will...