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30 Jan 2025

30 Jan 2025

Tariff volatility

• Tariff threat. President Trump rattled FX markets this morning after reiterating tariffs could be imposed on Canada & Mexico on Saturday. USD rose.• Macro pulse. Overnight the data showed that US growth outpaced the Eurozone. ECB cut rates again. More moves likely to revive activity.• AUD vol. The Trump comments exerted downward pressure on the AUD. More headline driven volatility likely over the period ahead. Global Trends The economic data flow picked up overnight with the relative outperformance of the US once again on show with tariff-related comments by US President Trump rattling a few FX market nerves this...

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30 Jan 2025

New Trump Tariff Threat Punches Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are spiralling lower this afternoon after US president Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would follow through with imposing 25-percent tariffs on the two countries in retaliation for allowing fentanyl smuggling across their borders. According to some reports, Trump also suggested that he will make a determination on whether oil imports will be covered “this evening”. The story is still developing, and is clearly triggering stops across currency markets, but may not have staying power: we would caution market participants against overreacting, and will again reiterate our view that tariffs...

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30 Jan 2025

Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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