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11 Dec 2024

11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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11 Dec 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts Aggressively, But Turns More Cautious, Boosting Loonie

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning – a step that broadly matched market expectations – but also telegraphed a more gradual approach in months to come, generating a modest advance in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “With inflation around 2 percent, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected,” making it reasonable to “reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3...

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11 Dec 2024

US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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