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10 Dec 2024

10 Dec 2024

2025 Projections

We think currencies will follow non-linear paths in 2025 against a highly-turbulent global economic backdrop. Note: Our forecasts are predicated on an outlook in which the US staves off recession, a financial crisis does not occur, and major global geopolitical shocks are avoided. Among other risks, an unexpectedly-abrupt economic deceleration, plunge in asset prices, or outbreak of war could see safe haven and funding currencies—principally the dollar—outperforming their rivals, and throwing the assumptions outlined in this report into question. 

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10 Dec 2024

The ‘US exceptionalism’ trade could run out of runway by the middle of the year

The US dollar is poised for a promising start to 2025, buoyed by a confluence of supportive factors. Strong domestic fundamentals, a relatively-hawkish Fed, optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s electoral victory, and a weak economic backdrop in the rest of the world should underpin incremental gains.  But the honeymoon is unlikely to last. The delayed impact of the Fed’s aggressive post-pandemic tightening is already hitting housing market activity, and labour markets are cooling. After a long period of surprisingly strong growth, consumer demand seems likely to slow, and heightened policy uncertainty stemming from Trump’s unpredictable agenda could erode business confidence, weakening...

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10 Dec 2024

The euro looks doomed to grind lower, yet there are reasons to expect a shift in fortunes as the dollar’s outperformance fades

The euro area is stuck in a deepening economic quagmire. An export-dependent and manufacturing-heavy growth model is coming under strain as geopolitical tensions keep energy prices elevated, China moves up the value chain and dumps excess industrial capacity into the rest of the world, and the US becomes more isolationist. Domestic political dysfunction is worsening, productivity growth is sluggish, and growth remains lacklustre, trailing far behind the US.  Against this backdrop, the odds are stacked against the common currency. The European Central Bank, responding to deteriorating growth and inflation prospects, is seen slashing rates to 2% or lower in the...

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10 Dec 2024

The global balance of power is shifting

As 2024 draws to a close, the world economy is enjoying a moment of relative stability. Post-pandemic inflationary pressures have eased. Central banks, after aggressively tightening, are cautiously lowering interest rates, reducing the spectre of a policy-induced recession. Cross-asset volatility is subsiding, and key measures of financial stress remain reassuringly low. But this sense of calm conceals areas of vulnerability. Government deficits have widened alarmingly and sovereign bond markets are reflecting growing unease over borrowing levels. New technologies are redrawing the investment landscape, creating a new set of winners and losers. Financial asset valuations, particularly in the United States, remain...

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10 Dec 2024

Global, regional, and domestic factors may exert pressure on the Singapore dollar

After outperforming the greenback and touching levels last hit more than a decade ago, the Singaporean dollar is now reversing course, and we expect this weakness to extend over upcoming quarters. Under our baseline scenario, the US dollar could appreciate a little further as incoming president Trump’s policy platform is put in place, the American economy continues to outpace its peers, and interest rate expectations remain tilted toward US assets. At the same time, Singapore’s small, open economy might suffer the consequences of a slowdown in world trade and production trends. Singapore’s small, open economy is exposed to global trade flowsSingapore...

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