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10 Oct 2024

10 Oct 2024

Expectations matter

• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than predicted. Key underlying trends still point to a series of US Fed rate cuts over the next year.• Event radar. China holds a fiscal policy briefing tomorrow. US PPI tonight. Next week AU jobs, US retail sales, ECB meeting, & China GDP are due. A modest reversal of fortunes across markets overnight despite the latest US CPI inflation reading coming in a touch higher than predicted....

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10 Oct 2024

Inflation Prints Higher, Further Reducing Easing Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, reducing the Federal Reserve’s scope for manoeuvre as it eases policy settings, and further depressing odds on a second outsized rate cut at next month’s decision. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly above consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which had...

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10 Oct 2024

Currencies Stall Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are losing momentum as investors brace for this morning’s September consumer price index numbers out of the United States. The dollar is holding steady after racking up an eight-day winning streak, and most of its rivals remain stuck within well-contained trading ranges as questions around the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory continue to dominate price action. With the European Central Bank now expected to slightly outpace its US equivalent in cutting rates this year, the euro is plumbing lows last seen in mid-August, and the British pound is climbing in the opposite direction on bets that the Bank of...

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