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31 Jan 2024

31 Jan 2024

Fed leans against near-term cuts

• Fed focus. No change from the Fed. Tone was more ‘neutral’ & while Chair Powell pointed to easing later this year he also watered down odds of a March cut.• Market vol. Another burst of volatility as markets digested the US data & adjusted near-term Fed expectations. AUD whipped around (now ~$0.6560).• AU CPI. Q4 inflation slowed more than forecast. Markets are pricing in a chance of a RBA rate cut as soon as next week. We don’t see this happening. Another burst of market volatility overnight with the latest Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference center stage....

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31 Jan 2024

Fed Shifts Into Neutral

For a fourth consecutive meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high, and signalled a desire to keep rates at prevailing levels for now. In a distinctly non-committal statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it “judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance,” but avoided telegraphing imminent cuts, warning that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. Language that previously referred to the possibility...

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31 Jan 2024

Traders Turn Cautious Amid Event Risk Onslaught

Markets are beginning to wake from their long slumber. With month-end flows, the Treasury’s Quarterly Rebalancing announcement, the Employment Cost Index, and a Federal Reserve decision in the docket for the day ahead, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is up – classic signs of risk aversion. China’s manufacturing sector remained mired in a downturn in January, suggesting that half-hearted government stimulus efforts are failing to generate enough domestic demand to offset weaker export markets. The National Bureau of Statistics’ official manufacturing purchasing manager index rose slightly to 49.2 in...

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