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17 Nov 2023

Short memories

Investors are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively next year as inflation slows – even if the economy experiences a “soft landing”, with growth and employment holding up relatively well. We’re not so sure. Scientists have long known that we tend to carry the macroeconomic lessons learned in our youth throughout our lives. People who lived through the Great Depression remained less likely to participate in stock markets throughout their investing careers, more favourable economic conditions led the early Baby Boomers to maintain persistently higher allocations to equities, and individuals who came of age around the...

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Global bond rally continues, weighing on dollar

Easing expectations are growing across global financial markets after another round of softer-than-anticipated data led investors to pull implied rate cuts further forward in 2024. In the US, equity futures are firm, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is on the defensive after reports yesterday morning showed import prices sliding by more than economists forecast while the number of people submitting new claims for jobless benefits began to climb in earnest. Walmart, arguably a better consumer spending bellwether than any sentiment survey or economic forecaster, released a more pessimistic earnings outlook, saying it saw signs of restraint from households...

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