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06 Oct 2023

06 Oct 2023

Private Matters

Signs of slowing momentum are everywhere below the headline level in today’s Canadian jobs report – hours worked are falling, part-time roles are growing, and the construction sector is (unsurprisingly) taking a beating. Market expectations for a prolonged pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle should remain intact. But businesses are still driving the bulk of the hiring activity. The public and educational services sectors added roughly 145,800 jobs over the last year, against a gain of 406,200 in the private sector. A spike in private sector unemployment – similar to those that have historically played a bigger role...

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06 Oct 2023

Job creation accelerates, exacerbating market stress

The US labour market smashed forecasts in September – with job growth almost doubling market estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts have farther to go in slowing the economy. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 336,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.2 percent year-over-year, broadly in line with expectations. Ahead of the release, economists had forecast a 160,000-job gain (although markets likely expected more) and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar...

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06 Oct 2023

Currencies flatline into jobs reports

The dollar and Treasury yields are under pressure ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that could shed more light on how the economy is holding up amid the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades. The trade-weighted greenback is almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s levels, with week-to-date gains at just 0.2 percent, while ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.73 percent, well off Tuesday’s 4.87 percent high. The pound is struggling to gain momentum after the Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent yesterday articulated a change in the central bank’s reaction function, appearing to suggest that growth risks were beginning to...

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