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Given the activity spillovers from China’s faster-than-predicted shift away from zero-Covid, its economic reopening and stimulus drive should help lessen some of the downside risks to global growth. This should be an underlying Australian support via tailwinds provided to commodity prices. However, we think that a lot of that narrative is already priced in. Australian dollar appreciation has recently outpaced China’s activity pulse, indicating that an acceleration in momentum is being pre-empted. It would take further meaningful upgrades-which we don’t anticipate, to extend early 2023’s bullishness.

Australian dollar, actual versus estimate
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