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The loonie might follow a multi-phased trajectory.

Taken in sum, a prolonged period of calm could see the Canadian dollar rally in the short term, outperforming regions that are facing more obvious structural challenges – like the United Kingdom, the euro area, Japan, and China – in capitalizing on dollar weakness. But growth risks, comparatively low yields, and volatility sensitivities – particularly relative to US equity markets – should represent serious headwinds for the exchange rate beyond the early autumn.


Rolling 30-day CADUSD correlations, correlation coefficient

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Twists & turns

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