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The euro area is coming in for a hard landing.

A series of data releases in December showed growth slowing more aggressively in the early fourth quarter as activity in the manufacturing and services sectors weakened. The decline in year-over-year data appears consistent with a recessionary downturn. 

Citi Economic Data Change Indices

To some degree, the economy is suffering from lagging effects associated with last year’s energy shock, exposure to a softening global industrial cycle, and the early stages of fiscal consolidation. But to a significant extent, the euro area’s slowdown looks policy induced. 

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