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US economic outperformance is likely to fade.

Markets risk turning overoptimistic on underlying trends: Fiscal support is turning negative, consumer spending is running on fumes as savings rates run well below, and pre-pandemic norms diffusion indices are pointing to a renewed rise in unemployment rates.

Non-farm employment diffusion indices, share of industries reporting growth (unchanged cut by half)

As the lagged effects of monetary tightening become increasingly evident in rate-sensitive sectors, we expect recessionary headwinds to grow stronger, culminating in a downturn beginning before June 2024. Warning signs should multiply in the coming months, with economic surprise differentials narrowing against the US.

GDP-weighted economic surprise indices

Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week
Inflation & politics this weeks focus
Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market 'Triple Witching'
AUD cross-currents
Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite
AUD outperformance continues

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