A bearish scenario for the renminbi could manifest if China’s economy fails to re-ignite. There is a risk that the government’s policy response is not forceful enough to sustainably turn the property market around, awaken dormant animal spirits, and counteract the drag on exports and production within a sluggish global export environment. An extended period of subpar growth might unnerve markets, given the potential financial stability and deflationary risks that could be enflamed. We think this sort of backdrop could accelerate renminbi-negative capital flight out of the country.

China inflation, annual % change