The US job creation engine turned in a solid performance in September, maintaining market expectations for a short pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing campaign. According to delayed data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 119,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an overshoot relative to the 51,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 33,000 positions. This brought the three-month average pace of job creation to 62,000, up from 29,000 ahead of the update. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent previously—likely assisted by a rise in the participation rate—and average hourly earnings decelerated to 0.2 percent month-over-month from the 0.4-percent pace set in the prior month.

Today’s numbers were originally slated for publishing on October 3. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday confirmed it would not release a standalone October payrolls report, and that the November report will be postponed to December 16, after the Fed’s December 10 decision.

Separately, initial claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 220,000 in the week ended November 15 and continuing claims climbed slightly in the prior week, pointing to the persistence of “no-hire, no-fire” dynamics in US labour markets.

The dollar is holding steady and Treasury yields are down slightly across the front of the curve as traders anticipate easier policy ahead, but odds on a December rate cut don’t appear to have moved by much, suggesting that investors see these numbers reinforcing a “Goldilocks” view of underlying US fundamentals. We think there’s room for a more dovish outlook to emerge in the coming weeks, but suspect that Fed policymakers are as uncertain as markets are, and think the December decision will remain a major wildcard until it is announced.