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Exchange rate gains could prove fragile.

We think the euro could continue to appreciate against the dollar into the early autumn on expectations for a divergence in policy between the European Central Bank and its US counterpart, but we hold weaker-than-consensus views on the currency’s longer-term performance. Until economic surprise indices turn in the euro area’s favour and the Federal Reserve ends its tightening cycle in a decisive manner, we suspect the exchange rate will have difficulty sustaining levels above the 1.15 threshold.

Economic Surprise Indices

Nvidia Earnings Top Estimates, Markets Surge
Fed Worried About Cutting Too Soon
Markets Mark Time Into Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings
AUD recovery continues
Canadian Inflation Decelerates Sharply in January
Dollar Steadies As Rate Cut Consensus Falters