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Exchange rate gains could prove fragile.

We think the euro could continue to appreciate against the dollar into the early autumn on expectations for a divergence in policy between the European Central Bank and its US counterpart, but we hold weaker-than-consensus views on the currency’s longer-term performance. Until economic surprise indices turn in the euro area’s favour and the Federal Reserve ends its tightening cycle in a decisive manner, we suspect the exchange rate will have difficulty sustaining levels above the 1.15 threshold.


Economic Surprise Indices

Positive Jobs Reports Bolster Risk Appetite
US jobs report in focus
Markets Stabilise as Policy Risks Recede
No new tariff news is good news
Will the rebound in sentiment last?
Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

Latest Analysis

Latest Analysis