Close this search box.

Explore the world.

Assess underlying fundamentals and market conditions in the world's major economies.


Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Connect with us.

Learn more about Corpay Cross-Border and the currency research team.


Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

We are looking for the Australian dollar’s volatility to continue through the third quarter. We see the exchange rate oscillating in a 0.65-0.69-cent range as various crosscurrents play out. The list includes more market turbulence, global and Australian recession fears, China’s stumbling recovery and weaker renminbi, narrower interest rate differentials, the flow support from Australia’s current account surplus (circa-1.4 percent of gross domestic product), and solid underlying commodity demand from the global green energy push. But beyond the next few tricky months, our underlying view continues to be for the Australian dollar to edge up into the low 0.70’s by early 2024. We assume that once the worst of the economic downturn passes, signs of stabilising momentum, lower inflation, a sturdier Chinese economy, and a shift in stance from the Federal Reserve and other central banks – from rate hiking ‘inflation fighters’ to ‘growth supporters’ – should weigh on the arguably-overvalued US dollar and give cyclical currencies like the Australian dollar a boos

Australian dollar, actual versus estimates

Easing Wagers Pull Back Slightly as Wariness Returns
China data in focus
Soft Landing Hopes Drive Dollar Lower
AUD outperformance to continue?
US inflation jolts the AUD
US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing