The British industrial sector remains mired in contraction, house prices are falling, labour markets are softening, and a broad array of underlying growth indicators are pointing to slowing momentum. With the full impact of higher policy rates yet to hit home, most forecasters currently expect the economy to exhibit stagflation-esque characteristics in 2024 – consensus estimates show inflation topping 3.1 percent while a mild, front-loaded recession leaves growth below 0.4 percent by year end.

2024 consensus forecasts, averaged across data providers