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Recession risks remain significant.

The British industrial sector remains mired in contraction, house prices are falling, labour markets are softening, and a broad array of underlying growth indicators are pointing to slowing momentum. With the full impact of higher policy rates yet to hit home, most forecasters currently expect the economy to exhibit stagflation-esque characteristics in 2024 – consensus estimates show inflation topping 3.1 percent while a mild, front-loaded recession leaves growth below 0.4 percent by year end.

2024 consensus forecasts, averaged across data providers

US economic worries & the USD
2 days ago
Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses
1 week ago
US jobs report in focus
1 week ago
US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows
1 week ago
USD jolt
1 week ago
Fed Keeps Rates On Hold Even As Consensus Breaks Down
1 week ago

Latest Analysis

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Latest Analysis

US economic worries & the USD
06 August, 2025
• Upbeat tone. US equities have rebounded over recent days, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD have edged a little higher.• US macro. A run of weak US data has boosted Fed rate...
Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses
01 August, 2025
The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data...
US jobs report in focus
31 July, 2025
• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency...
US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows
31 July, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US...
USD jolt
30 July, 2025
• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations...
Fed Keeps Rates On Hold Even As Consensus Breaks Down
30 July, 2025
The Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy even as it held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, and stopped short of executing the sort of communications pivot that might...
Bank of Canada Holds Rates, Telegraphs Readiness to Cut
30 July, 2025
After a series of rate cuts, the Bank of Canada decided to leave interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive time this morning, but signalled a willingness to cut rates again if inflation stabilises...
US Economy Rebounds, But Underlying Indicators Point to Slowdown Ahead
30 July, 2025
The world’s biggest economy staged a snappish recovery in the second quarter as tariff front-running effects were unwound, but signs of moderating growth were clearly visible, suggesting that momentum...
Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply
29 July, 2025
The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados...
Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead
28 July, 2025
The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury...

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