Newsletters
Subscribe
Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.
Subscribe
Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.
Latest Blog Entries
Latest Blog Entries
US CPI in focus
23 October, 2025
• Mixed signals. Sanctions on Russian producers boosted oil prices. Limited spillover into other markets. Equities rose. AUD outperformed overnight.• US inflation. US CPI due tonight. US government shutdown delayed it. Diverging ‘goods’ & ‘services’ price trends at play. Data may generate USD vol. Global Trends Geopolitical developments generated a little volatility across...
Swings & roundabouts
22 October, 2025
• Push-pull. Pockets of vol. in some asset classes. US equities eased, bond yields consolidated & USD tread water. AUD & NZD held steady.• US CPI. US Gov. shutdown ongoing. But US CPI will be released Friday night. Diverging trends between ‘goods’ & ‘services’ prices. USD vol. likely.• AU macro. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. Q3 CPI due next week. Firmer inflation...
Risk sentiment turning the corner
20 October, 2025
• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains in place. But given its importance the delayed US CPI report will be released this week (Fri night AEDT).• RBA pricing. Uptick in AU unemployment has seen markets price in a greater chance of another...
No data, no news, no volatility
16 October, 2025
The dollar is cruising toward a third consecutive day of declines and short-term Treasury yields are coming under mild downward pressure as investors firm bets on a fairly-forceful easing path from the Federal Reserve. Most major foreign exchange pairs are caught in narrow trading ranges amid a lack of political and economic catalysts, leaving currencies like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso almost...
Dollar retreats on dovish messaging from Powell, trade tensions keep simmering
15 October, 2025
The dollar is retreating and benchmark Treasury yields are plumbing four-week lows after Federal Reserve chair Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from countering market expectations for rate cuts at each of the central bank’s final two meetings this year. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economic annual meeting in Philadelphia yesterday, Powell said the “outlook for employment...
Dollar loses momentum on fading geopolitical risks, Canadian dollar leaps on strong jobs
10 October, 2025
A nascent recovery in the dollar is stalling out this morning as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Japan, and the euro area show signs of easing. The greenback is down -0.2 percent against a basket of its major counterparts, Treasury yields are edging lower, and US equity indices are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Oil prices are slipping as markets remain oversupplied and risk premia...
Currency markets enter consolidation mode
09 October, 2025
Currencies outside the US are in consolidation mode. The Japanese yen is holding near the 153 threshold as traders turn more sceptical on the Takaichi administration’s capacity for delivering fiscal and monetary stimulus, the euro is treading water in line with an ebbing in French political headlines, and the British pound is inching higher amid a lack of domestic rate catalysts. The Canadian dollar—stuck...
Dollar recovery extends
08 October, 2025
The dollar is steamrolling over its major counterparts again this morning as investors unwind exposures in other jurisdictions and pile into bets on continued gains in American equity markets. The trade-weighted greenback is up around a quarter-percent from yesterday’s North American close, Treasury yields are slipping across the front end of the curve, and stock market futures are pointing to another...
RBNZ: not done yet
07 October, 2025
The “Go Big or Go Home” mentality was on display once again in NZ today after the RBNZ delivered an outsized 50bp interest rate cut as it attempts to jolt the stuttering economy back to life. The decision lowers the RBNZ’s official cash rate to 2.5%. This is ~300bps below the peak reached in 2023/24 when the world was fighting the post COVID inflation surge. As our chart shows, outside of the Global...
Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent
07 October, 2025
Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker...
Latest Market Views
Latest Market Views
External threats could send the loonie tumbling lower, but falling interest rates argue for some upside.
10 December, 2024
The Canadian dollar’s underperformance has deepened over the last two years. Soft commodity prices, subdued investment, and rising household borrowing costs—the heaviest in the G7—are weighing on economic growth, forcing the central bank to ease policy more aggressively than the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House has reignited trade uncertainties, putting the exchange...
The bullish narrative behind the dollar remains powerful—and highly plausible
10 December, 2024
The consensus expects the dollar to outperform again in 2025, and there are good reasons to stick with the herd. The US economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience, defying expectations for a policy-induced slowdown. Household balance sheets remain solid, labour markets are tight, and real disposable income is climbing—bolstering consumer spending. A supportive fiscal stance, coupled with advances...
As frustrating as it might be for US policymakers and others across the global economy, the dollar’s value could remain high
10 December, 2024
Both Donald Trump and JD Vance have expressed a desire to weaken the dollar, but deliberate efforts to achieve this look unlikely to succeed: Fiscal tightening, which could weaken growth and lower relative interest rates, appears improbable given the incoming administration’s focus on tax cuts and sustained government spending. The Federal Reserve is legally and structurally insulated against...
Investors are positioned for a repeat of Donald Trump’s first term, but this could prove too simplistic
10 December, 2024
Starting conditions today differ starkly from 2017. Government finances are far more stretched, limiting the scope for new fiscal stimulus. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates are biting: job creation has slowed, the housing market has weakened, and businesses are cutting back on investment. Government finances...
The ‘US exceptionalism’ trade could run out of runway by the middle of the year
10 December, 2024
The US dollar is poised for a promising start to 2025, buoyed by a confluence of supportive factors. Strong domestic fundamentals, a relatively-hawkish Fed, optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s electoral victory, and a weak economic backdrop in the rest of the world should underpin incremental gains. But the honeymoon is unlikely to last. The delayed impact of the Fed’s aggressive post-pandemic...
2025 Projections
10 December, 2024
We think currencies will follow non-linear paths in 2025 against a highly-turbulent global economic backdrop. Note: Our forecasts are predicated on an outlook in which the US staves off recession, a financial crisis does not occur, and major global geopolitical shocks are avoided. Among other risks, an unexpectedly-abrupt economic deceleration, plunge in asset prices, or outbreak of war could see safe...
The euro looks doomed to grind lower, yet there are reasons to expect a shift in fortunes as the dollar’s outperformance fades
10 December, 2024
The euro area is stuck in a deepening economic quagmire. An export-dependent and manufacturing-heavy growth model is coming under strain as geopolitical tensions keep energy prices elevated, China moves up the value chain and dumps excess industrial capacity into the rest of the world, and the US becomes more isolationist. Domestic political dysfunction is worsening, productivity growth is sluggish,...
Mexico’s relationship with the US may be on a rocky footing, but this isn’t the country’s first rodeo
10 December, 2024
Peso fundamentals are relatively supportive: the economy is growing at a solid clip, inflation remains well-contained, fiscal and current account deficits look manageable, and the central bank’s policy rate remains well above its US equivalent. Political uncertainty is falling after the summer election and this autumn’s judicial reforms. The outlook nonetheless hinges on whether US President...
A repricing in policy expectations could weaken sterling in the early new year, but economic resilience points to a recovery ahead
10 December, 2024
The British pound faces a turbulent outlook in 2025, shaped by conflicting domestic and international forces: After a distinct loss of economic momentum in 2024, labour markets are softening, putting wage gains under pressure and driving inflation expectations lower. We think the Bank of England will cut rates more aggressively than markets anticipate in the near term, limiting the extent to which...
Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds could blow harder in 2025
10 December, 2024
The Chinese renminbi should steadily weaken against the US dollar, and struggle against other currencies such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and euro over the next few quarters. In our judgement, the pricing-in and enacting-of US President-elect Trump’s trade policies will likely see a greater risk premium attached to the yuan, given the economic headwinds the protectionist measures may create...