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Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1

US household spending remains remarkably strong.

Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD

Exhibit 2

Labour market conditions are tight.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit 3

Core inflation is subsiding too slowly.

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 4

And financial conditions are stabilizing.

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Exhibit 5

Rate expectations are climbing.

Target rate probabilities by meeting.

Exhibit 6

Across the front end.

Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, %

Exhibit 7

And the dollar is regaining ground.

DXY Dollar Index, 1973 = 100

Exhibit 8

The Israeli economy is also performing well.

Estimated gross domestic product growth, annual change, %

Exhibit 9

Markets expect the BOI rate to hit 5%.

All-items consumer price index, annual % change vs. 1-year swap rate

Exhibit 10

But political uncertainty is hobbling the shekel.

120-day rolling correlation, USDILS and Nasdaq Composite

Exhibit 11

Forwards have outperformed spot 64% of the time.

Spot vs. outright 12-month forward rate, advanced 12 months

Exhibit 12

And volatility expectations are likely to remain elevated.

3-month at-the-money option implied volatility

Twists & turns
5 hours ago
Markets stage violent reversal after Trump signals de-escalation in Iran conflict
16 hours ago
Middle East concerns & spillovers
1 day ago
Oil prices soar as Mideast conflict widens
4 days ago
Market wobbles return
5 days ago
Fed holds rates, downplays oil price-driven shift in risk calculus
5 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Twists & turns
23 March, 2026
• Risk reversal. Comments by Pres. Trump saw oil prices fall & sentiment improve. USD weaker. AUD ticked up, but AUD also underperforms on crosses.• Fragile markets. Situation in Middle East remains...
Markets stage violent reversal after Trump signals de-escalation in Iran conflict
23 March, 2026
Oil prices are tumbling and currency markets are snapping back toward pre-war levels after President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations”...
Middle East concerns & spillovers
22 March, 2026
• Market nerves. Concerns about the duration of the Middle East conflict & global economy remain. Equities fell on Friday, bond yields rose. AUD underperforms.• Risk radar. Situation in Middle East...
Oil prices soar as Mideast conflict widens
19 March, 2026
Global energy benchmarks are approaching last weekend’s panic-driven highs as the Middle East conflict shows signs of spiralling out of control. Brent is trading above $115, West Texas Intermediate...
Market wobbles return
18 March, 2026
• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs....
Fed holds rates, downplays oil price-driven shift in risk calculus
18 March, 2026
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon and did little to acknowledge an Iran war-driven shift in the balance of risks facing the US economy in the accompanying statement, suggesting...
Bank of Canada holds, signals willingness to look through energy price shock
18 March, 2026
As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and expressed concern over persistent weakness in the Canadian economy, suggesting that policymakers...
Oil prices slip slightly, bolstering market confidence
18 March, 2026
Financial markets are turning cautiously optimistic this morning as oil prices stabilise and investors position for a raft of central bank decisions. Several tankers registered to non-aligned countries...
RBA's inflation worry
17 March, 2026
• Improved mood. Despite ongoing Middle East issues & high oil prices risk sentiment has improved. Softer USD & a RBA hike supports the AUD.• RBA hikes. Another 25bp rate rise delivered yesterday....
RBA: Inflation battle continues
17 March, 2026
After being ‘strategically timid’ during its last tightening cycle the RBA looks to be taking fewer chances when it comes to its renewed battle against inflation with another 25bp rate hike announced today....

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