Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1

US household spending remains remarkably strong.

Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD

Exhibit 2

Labour market conditions are tight.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit 3

Core inflation is subsiding too slowly.

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 4

And financial conditions are stabilizing.

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Exhibit 5

Rate expectations are climbing.

Target rate probabilities by meeting.

Exhibit 6

Across the front end.

Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, %

Exhibit 7

And the dollar is regaining ground.

DXY Dollar Index, 1973 = 100

Exhibit 8

The Israeli economy is also performing well.

Estimated gross domestic product growth, annual change, %

Exhibit 9

Markets expect the BOI rate to hit 5%.

All-items consumer price index, annual % change vs. 1-year swap rate

Exhibit 10

But political uncertainty is hobbling the shekel.

120-day rolling correlation, USDILS and Nasdaq Composite

Exhibit 11

Forwards have outperformed spot 64% of the time.

Spot vs. outright 12-month forward rate, advanced 12 months

Exhibit 12

And volatility expectations are likely to remain elevated.

3-month at-the-money option implied volatility

Relief rally supports additional market gains

19 hours ago

Let's make a deal

1 day ago

Markets rally as Trump backs down on Greenland

1 day ago

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

1 day ago

'Sell America' trade intensifies

2 days ago

Structural USD pressures

3 days ago

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Latest Analysis

Relief rally supports additional market gains

22 January, 2026

Markets look set to extend gains for a second day after President Donald Trump ruled out the use of force and retreated from threats to seize Greenland through economic coercion. The dollar is firmer,...

Let's make a deal

21 January, 2026

• Improved tone. Reports of a Greenland deal ‘framework’ boosts sentiment. US equities rose. USD index a bit firmer. AUD outperforms. NZD edges higher.• Data flow. The volatile Australian jobs...

Markets rally as Trump backs down on Greenland

21 January, 2026

Markets are celebrating TACO Tuesday on a Wednesday after US President Donald Trump dropped a threat to impose tariffs on imports from a number of European trading partners, saying that he and NATO Secretary-General...

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

21 January, 2026

After several days of turbulence, selling pressure is easing across financial markets, suggesting that investors expect US president Donald Trump to adopt a less confrontational approach when meeting in...

'Sell America' trade intensifies

20 January, 2026

Equity futures, Treasuries, and the dollar are down for a second day as investors shun US assets in the aftermath of the weekend’s Greenland-related tariff threats from Donald Trump, and selling in Japanese...

Structural USD pressures

19 January, 2026

• Geopolitical vol. Weekend US tariff announcements initially rattled markets. But the USD lost ground as yesterday rolled on. AUD & NZD higher.• US pressure points. US reliant on foreigners to fund...

Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats

19 January, 2026

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire...

Swings & roundabouts

15 January, 2026

• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things...

Currency ranges tighten as complacency sets in

15 January, 2026

Good morning. Currency markets have slipped back into extremely tight ranges as geopolitical fears recede and incoming data point to “Goldilocks” conditions across much of the advanced world. Realised...

Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets

14 January, 2026

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese...

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Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1

US household spending remains remarkably strong.

Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD

Exhibit 2

Labour market conditions are tight.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit 3

Core inflation is subsiding too slowly.

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 4

And financial conditions are stabilizing.

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Exhibit 5

Rate expectations are climbing.

Target rate probabilities by meeting.

Exhibit 6

Across the front end.

Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, %

Exhibit 7

And the dollar is regaining ground.

DXY Dollar Index, 1973 = 100

Exhibit 8

The Israeli economy is also performing well.

Estimated gross domestic product growth, annual change, %

Exhibit 9

Markets expect the BOI rate to hit 5%.

All-items consumer price index, annual % change vs. 1-year swap rate

Exhibit 10

But political uncertainty is hobbling the shekel.

120-day rolling correlation, USDILS and Nasdaq Composite

Exhibit 11

Forwards have outperformed spot 64% of the time.

Spot vs. outright 12-month forward rate, advanced 12 months

Exhibit 12

And volatility expectations are likely to remain elevated.

3-month at-the-money option implied volatility

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