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Chartbook: May 8

Exhibit 1

Speculators are doubling down on long-euro bets.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, As at May 2, 2023

Exhibit 2

Economic surprise indices are diverging again.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices, %

Exhibit 3

Regional banks are still under pressure.

KBW Bank Index

Exhibit 4

Credit creation is slowing.

Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small, and Large and Middle-Market Firms

Exhibit 5

But loan volumes haven't crashed.

3-Month Net Change in Loans, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD

Exhibit 6

And underlying fundamentals remain surprisingly strong.

Index: January 2019 = 100

AUD still on the backfoot
4 hours ago
Risk wobbles weigh on the AUD
2 days ago
US Fed shifting course?
5 days ago
Yuan step at a time
5 days ago
Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows
5 days ago
Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets
6 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
AUD still on the backfoot
19 May, 2026
• Market wobbles. Inflation concerns & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform. AUD now ~2.2% from recent high.• Data flow. UK CPI inflation out today. FOMC minutes...
Risk wobbles weigh on the AUD
17 May, 2026
• Inflation worries. Higher oil prices & central bank rethink push up bond yields. Equities dipped on Friday. USD firmer. AUD & NZD fall back.• Macro pulse. Concerns about the global economy &...
US Fed shifting course?
14 May, 2026
• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed...
Yuan step at a time
14 May, 2026
It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk...
Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows
14 May, 2026
Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent...
Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets
13 May, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer”...
US inflation pulse reawakening
12 May, 2026
• Market wobbles. Faster US inflation dampened the mood. US equities dipped, bond yields rose. USD firmer. AUD drifted back but still at elevated levels.• AU Budget. A lot of the big ticket items already...
The shekel paradox
12 May, 2026
The factors driving Israel’s currency higher may owe less to Jerusalem than to Silicon Valley The Israeli shekel’s surge to a 33-year high against the dollar—breaching the psychologically...
US inflation slightly exceeds expectations, underpinning the dollar
12 May, 2026
Underlying consumer prices climbed by slightly more than expected in the United States last month, reinforcing the case for a tightening bias from the Federal Reserve, and putting modest upward pressure...
Dollar grinds higher as inflation data looms and oil prices rise
12 May, 2026
Good morning and happy US inflation day to all who celebrate. The dollar is advancing and Treasury yields are edging higher in the run-up to the week’s most important data release at 8:30, which is expected...

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