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Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1

The Treasury is running out of cash.

Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD

Exhibit 2

Market distortions are emerging.

May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, %

Exhibit 3

UK prices are set to roll over.

Annual change in consumer price indices, %

Exhibit 4

The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed.

Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020

Exhibit 5

Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro.

Citi Economic Surprise Indices

Exhibit 6

And gains are starting to unwind.

Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from January 3, 2022

Exhibit 7

Rate differentials are tilting toward North America.

Market-implied change in policy rate, %

Exhibit 8

US consumers may have more dry powder than we thought.

Mortgage origination volume by purpose, billions USD

Exhibit 9

Canadian consumers may not.

Average percentage increase in mortgage payment relative to February 2022

Exhibit 10

Nominal rates might be plateauing.

Exchange rate change against dollar, %

Ceasefire optimism fades, leaving markets in retracement mode
5 hours ago
Fragile ceasefire
18 hours ago
Iran relief rally punishes dollar
1 day ago
Let's make a deal
1 day ago
Oil prices plunge as US finds off-ramp in Iran conflict
1 day ago
Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets
1 week ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Ceasefire optimism fades, leaving markets in retracement mode
09 April, 2026
Markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as doubts mount over Tuesday’s US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Israel pressing its assault on targets in Lebanon, Tehran showing no sign of easing its...
Fragile ceasefire
08 April, 2026
• Holding up. Markets held onto yesterday’s gains stemming from the US/Iran ceasefire news. However there wasn’t much additional follow through in FX.• AUD & NZD. AUD near top of its ~2-week...
Iran relief rally punishes dollar
08 April, 2026
A tentative relief rally is unfolding across global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with yields falling, equities climbing, and the dollar tumbling against its major rivals...
Let's make a deal
07 April, 2026
• US/Iran ceasefire. News of a ceasefire has boosted risk sentiment. Equity futures higher, oil lower, USD weaker. AUD & NZD at multi-week highs.• Lingering issues. Developments are a positive. But...
Oil prices plunge as US finds off-ramp in Iran conflict
07 April, 2026
Oil prices are plunging and currency markets are reversing direction after US President Donald Trump said he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” “subject to the Islamic...
Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets
02 April, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices jumped and currency markets slid back into risk-aversion mode last night when Donald Trump claimed the US-Israeli war against Iran was “nearing completion” but failed to offer...
Markets climb on Iran optimism
01 April, 2026
Markets are soaring after US President Donald Trump announced an end to the war in Iran, saying that he and parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf had “really hit it off” during a FaceTime call...
Sentiment vs reality
31 March, 2026
• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water...
Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy
31 March, 2026
Financial markets are staging yet another relief rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is considering declaring victory in the Iran conflict without establishing control over the...
Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets
30 March, 2026
The dollar is on course for its strongest monthly performance since July and Brent crude is tracking what could be a record monthly gain as the US-Israeli war against Iran devolves into a protracted regional...

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