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Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1

The Treasury is running out of cash.

Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD

Exhibit 2

Market distortions are emerging.

May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, %

Exhibit 3

UK prices are set to roll over.

Annual change in consumer price indices, %

Exhibit 4

The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed.

Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020

Exhibit 5

Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro.

Citi Economic Surprise Indices

Exhibit 6

And gains are starting to unwind.

Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from January 3, 2022

Exhibit 7

Rate differentials are tilting toward North America.

Market-implied change in policy rate, %

Exhibit 8

US consumers may have more dry powder than we thought.

Mortgage origination volume by purpose, billions USD

Exhibit 9

Canadian consumers may not.

Average percentage increase in mortgage payment relative to February 2022

Exhibit 10

Nominal rates might be plateauing.

Exchange rate change against dollar, %

Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens
11 hours ago
Volatility rises as conflict spreads, but currency movements remain restrained
1 day ago
Duck & Cover
2 days ago
Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus
2 days ago
US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets
3 days ago
Currency ranges hold as risk appetite softens
4 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens
03 March, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing...
Volatility rises as conflict spreads, but currency movements remain restrained
02 March, 2026
Good morning. Financial markets are experiencing violent price action after the weekend’s US-Israeli strike on Iran triggered a classic—if short-lived—flight to safety and a sharp repricing in global energy...
Duck & Cover
01 March, 2026
• Geopolitical nerves. US/Israel conflict with Iran has dampened risk sentiment in early Asian trade. USD firmer. NZD slips back. AUD underperforms.• Lingering risks. Market nervousness may persist for...
Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus
01 March, 2026
Currency markets are set for a jolt when trading resumes this afternoon, though the reaction may prove less dramatic than the weekend’s headlines might suggest. US and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent...
US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets
28 February, 2026
The US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this morning, with the apparent aim of overthrowing the regime that has ruled since 1979. In an early-morning address, US president Donald Trump said...
Currency ranges hold as risk appetite softens
27 February, 2026
Good morning. Tensions between the US and Iran, doubts about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom, and uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff plans are restraining risk...
AUD outperforms
25 February, 2026
• AUD strength. Positive sentiment & firmer inflation have supported the AUD. This & JPY weakness have propelled AUD/JPY to a multi-decade high.• Data flow. US producer price inflation due later...
Markets stabilise as State of the Union address proves uneventful
25 February, 2026
Financial markets are becalmed after US president Donald Trump stuck to the script in his State of the Union address last night, avoiding any major policy announcements and striking a more measured tone...
Dollar resumes its climb against still-uncertain backdrop
24 February, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing against most of its major counterparts and measures of implied currency volatility are tracking near historic norms as foreign exchange traders downplay tariff risks...
Dollar softens as policy uncertainty climbs
23 February, 2026
Equity markets are lower and the dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts after the US cycled through four different tariff frameworks between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, underscoring...

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