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Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1

The Treasury is running out of cash.

Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD

Exhibit 2

Market distortions are emerging.

May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, %

Exhibit 3

UK prices are set to roll over.

Annual change in consumer price indices, %

Exhibit 4

The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed.

Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020

Exhibit 5

Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro.

Citi Economic Surprise Indices

Exhibit 6

And gains are starting to unwind.

Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from January 3, 2022

Exhibit 7

Rate differentials are tilting toward North America.

Market-implied change in policy rate, %

Exhibit 8

US consumers may have more dry powder than we thought.

Mortgage origination volume by purpose, billions USD

Exhibit 9

Canadian consumers may not.

Average percentage increase in mortgage payment relative to February 2022

Exhibit 10

Nominal rates might be plateauing.

Exchange rate change against dollar, %

The US petrocurrency illusion
11 hours ago
Ceasefire holds—symbolically, at least—relieving global markets
14 hours ago
Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound
1 day ago
Japan steps into FX markets
5 days ago
Currency markets are roiled as noise level ramps up
5 days ago
Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
6 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
The US petrocurrency illusion
05 May, 2026
America produces more crude than anyone. That does not spare it—or the dollar—the consequences of an oil shock. A comforting narrative has taken hold in Washington. The shale revolution, which transformed...
Ceasefire holds—symbolically, at least—relieving global markets
05 May, 2026
Good morning. Markets are steadying and crude prices are pulling back from their highs as the US and Iran avoid further escalation after a series of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz raised questions...
Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound
04 May, 2026
Happy Monday. Oil prices are reverting higher and the dollar is holding steady after President Donald Trump announced plans to “guide”—but not escort—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command,...
Japan steps into FX markets
30 April, 2026
• JPY jump. USD weaker as Japanese officials intervene to prop up the very weak JPY. This & positive sentiment boosted the AUD & NZD.• Macro trends. Further bouts of JPY intervention possible....
Currency markets are roiled as noise level ramps up
30 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is beating a retreat from two-week highs as traders process the implications from four major central bank decisions, three critical economic data releases, another leg higher in...
Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
29 April, 2026
• Market wobbles. Jump in oil & ‘hawkish’ vibes from US Fed rattled investors. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation accelerates, but not...
Market caution returns as US plans extended Iran blockade
29 April, 2026
Oil benchmarks and the dollar are extending yesterday’s gains after the Wall Street Journal said US president Donald Trump is preparing to maintain an indefinite blockade against Iranian shipping, rather...
Dollar rises as Iran headlines, policy decisions, and earnings reports intersect
28 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing and Brent crude prices are back above $110 a barrel as the US and Iran fail to make meaningful progress toward a deal that might relieve strain on global energy markets....
Hopeful markets
27 April, 2026
• Upbeat vibes. Reports Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. Equities rose. AUD near top of its range. But oil markets sceptical.• Event radar. US/Iran still in focus. Australian...
Markets retreat as battle lines in Mideast conflict harden
23 April, 2026
Financial markets are back in risk-off mode as Middle East peace talks show signs of stalling, with both sides continuing to enforce blockades on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is holding...

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