While nominal interest rate differentials may favour the US dollar for some time, we believe this renminbi headwind has topped out. Diverging growth trends should continue to assert themselves as a currency tailwind. In a world economy where recession risks ought to endure for many major economies, a sturdier China should encourage renminbi-positive capital inflows. Our baseline view is that the renminbi gradually strengthens over 2024. When combined with a softening US dollar, we see the exchange rate edging down to 7.05 by mid-2024 before moving sub-7.00 later in the year.

China credit impulse and activity, annual % change