Over the next month or two, we think economic surprise indices will soften in the United States, with consumer spending and labour market measures weakening relative to still-optimistic market forecasts. Global financial conditions should ease as US yields stabilize, and expected growth differentials should narrow, adding momentum to an already-underway portfolio rebalancing process in major investment portfolios. Against this backdrop, high-beta (growth-sensitive) currencies should broadly gain against the dollar, with the Canadian dollar near the head of the pack.

Bloomberg Consensus 2024 Growth Forecast, %