Weekly Chartbook

• US trends. US equities lost ground, as did bond yields & the USD. This helped currencies like EUR, AUD, & NZD lift. USD/JPY at multi-month lows.• Central banks. BoC surprised by keeping rates steady. US Fed Chair Powell indicated tariff impacts leave policymakers in a difficult spot.• Macro events. NZ CPI a bit hotter than forecast. China growth stronger. AU jobs report due today. ECB also...

• Calmer markets. European equities rose, while US markets gave back initial gains. EUR lost a bit of ground. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. Tariff-related developments somewhat negative. EU/US talks haven’t found common ground. China still pushing back. US data soft.• Macro events. China GDP out today. In the US retail sales & speech by Fed Chair Powell in focus tonight. AU jobs...

Financial markets are staging a modest relief rally after the Trump administration seemed to quietly grant a partial tariff carveout to smartphones and consumer electronics – helping ease fears of a sharp rise in US consumer prices. North American equity futures are setting up for an advance at the open, Treasury yields are incrementally lower, and the dollar is cruising toward a fifth day of...

• Upbeat tone. US equities rose on Friday, so did commodities. This, & the decline in the USD helped the AUD & NZD extend their upswings.• Tariff news. US announced various electronics imported from China will be ‘exempt’ from higher tariffs. But it only looks like a temporary reprieve.• Event Radar. China GDP, US retail sales, the BoC & ECB meetings, & a speech by Chair...

Measures of financial stress are easing this morning after an absolutely wild night in global markets. The dollar is consolidating its losses after enduring something resembling a “flash crash” as Asian markets opened yesterday evening, the S&P 500 is recovering from a circa-3-percent move, and ten-year Treasury yields are stabilising near 4.8 percent after rising by the most in a week since the...

• Risk wobbles. Concerns about a US-China trade war remain. US equities slipped back & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD pushed higher.• Tariff impacts. US’ effective tariff rate is still very high. Downside US growth risks remain. This & reduced investor confidence are USD negatives.• Volatility. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated over the period ahead. There’s...

Stock-index futures are edging lower and the dollar is weakening once more as the initial optimism sparked by yesterday’s tariff reversal yields to a more measured assessment of the risks still facing the US and world economies. Equity futures are setting up for a circa-1.5-percent loss at the North American open, ten-year Treasury yields are stuck near the 4.3 percent mark, and the greenback is heading...

Volatility continues to sweep across asset classes after the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” and retaliatory tariffs took effect last night, ratcheting American import taxes up to levels last seen in the immediate aftermath of the Civil War. The freezing of trade flows between the US and China bears a stark resemblance to the breakdown in relations between the West and the Soviet Union that led...

• Volatility. Tariff news continues to generate volatility. US equities unwound early gains to end the day lower. AUD & NZD followed. CNH also weaker.• Tariff news. While there were signals about deals for some nations, goods from China are set to be hit with another tariff. This dampened sentiment.• Macro events. RBNZ expected to cut interest rates again today. Tariff developments will continue...

The dust is settling after a tumultuous Monday in financial markets. North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are pushing above the 4.20-percent mark, and the dollar is edging lower against all of its major trade-sensitive counterparts. To summarise yesterday’s* insanity: the S&P 500 jumped more than 8 percent on an erroneous...