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Latest Analysis
US Fed shifting course?
14 May, 2026
• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed...
Yuan step at a time
14 May, 2026
It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk...
Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows
14 May, 2026
Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent...
Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets
13 May, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer”...
US inflation pulse reawakening
12 May, 2026
• Market wobbles. Faster US inflation dampened the mood. US equities dipped, bond yields rose. USD firmer. AUD drifted back but still at elevated levels.• AU Budget. A lot of the big ticket items already...
The shekel paradox
12 May, 2026
The factors driving Israel’s currency higher may owe less to Jerusalem than to Silicon Valley
The Israeli shekel’s surge to a 33-year high against the dollar—breaching the psychologically...
US inflation slightly exceeds expectations, underpinning the dollar
12 May, 2026
Underlying consumer prices climbed by slightly more than expected in the United States last month, reinforcing the case for a tightening bias from the Federal Reserve, and putting modest upward pressure...
Dollar grinds higher as inflation data looms and oil prices rise
12 May, 2026
Good morning and happy US inflation day to all who celebrate. The dollar is advancing and Treasury yields are edging higher in the run-up to the week’s most important data release at 8:30, which is expected...
US-Iran negotiations fall apart—again—leading to reversal in currency markets
11 May, 2026
The dollar is advancing against its major rivals, buoyed by Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls report and yet another collapse in US-Iran peace talks*. Days after the Trump administration triggered...
Two steps forward, one step back
10 May, 2026
• Push-pull forces. Positive US jobs offset by US rejecting Iran’s latest offer. US equity futures dipped & oil higher this morning. AUD at elevated levels.• Macro news. Australian budget in...