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GBP

03 Oct 2023

RBA: New governor, same result

Unsurprisingly the RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.1% for the 4th straight meeting. This was the first with new Governor Bullock at the helm. But her predecessor continues to cast a long shadow. The October post meeting statement appears very similar to the last one provided by former Governor Lowe. According to the RBA the policy tightening put through is “working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy”, with the decision to hold firm again in October providing “further time to assess” the impacts of the jump up in interest rates. Given...

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02 Oct 2023

Markets rise on interrupted shutdown

US markets are gaining this morning after the government reached a last-minute deal to avert a shutdown – but with the same brinksmanship likely to play out again in less than eight weeks, we’re not sure how long the momentum can last. Equity futures are rising ahead of the open, Treasury yields are pushing toward Friday’s highs, and the dollar is climbing against its major Asian and European rivals. In a surprising and confusing late-Saturday development, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – who had for weeks refused to consider a similar bipartisan measure crafted in the Senate – agreed to table...

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27 Sep 2023

Higher Oil, stronger USD

• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the RBA to tighten further remains. Retail sales due today. Another night of bearish sentiment with a further jump in oil prices fanning inflation fears which in turn feed through to bond yields and a stronger USD. WTI crude...

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26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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26 Sep 2023

Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum

Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand. Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot and press conference remain in play – which marks a contrast with the earlier part of the year, when markets repeatedly faded Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message. A number of factors may have led to...

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