Signs of slowing momentum are everywhere below the headline level in today’s Canadian jobs report – hours worked are falling, part-time roles are growing, and the construction sector is (unsurprisingly) taking a beating. Market expectations for a prolonged pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle should remain intact.
But businesses are still driving the bulk of the hiring activity. The public and educational services sectors added roughly 145,800 jobs over the last year, against a gain of 406,200 in the private sector. A spike in private sector unemployment – similar to those that have historically played a bigger role than interest rates in derailing the Canadian housing market – has not yet arrived.