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Policymakers could hold the line.

A more bearish backdrop for the yen might unfold if the Bank of Japan holds firm, ignoring elevated inflation and indications that price growth could persist. In this scenario, wide interest rate differentials should continue to depress the yen: especially if risk sentiment remains buoyant, inflation cools, and global growth slows whilst avoiding more sinister outcomes.

USDJPY and Japan Trade Weighted Index

Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
5 hours ago
Powering ahead
1 day ago
US payrolls in focus
4 days ago
Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall
5 days ago
US economic tariff pain
5 days ago
Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy
6 days ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy
30 April, 2025
A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its...
Tariff impacts starting to show
29 April, 2025
• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further...
Easing Trade Tensions Support Dollar, Loonie Languishes on Still-Unknown Election Result
29 April, 2025
Market sentiment is holding firm this morning as earnings reports come in, the cadence of data releases increases, and trade tensions show further signs of easing. Treasury yields are holding steady, S&P...
Canadian Dollar Slides as Projections Show Carney’s Liberals Missing Majority
28 April, 2025
Mark Carney emerged victorious in this evening’s Canadian election – reflecting voter confidence in the Prime Minister’s technocratic background and his commitment to defending the country’s economic sovereignty...
Tariff uncertainty lingers
28 April, 2025
• He said, Xi Said. Confusion about whether US/China are in tariff talks. US equities consolidated overnight, while US yields & USD lost ground.• AUD rebound. AUD bounced back strongly the past few...
Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
06 May, 2025
The dollar is retreating and North American equity futures are setting up for a second day of losses after a series of downbeat earnings outlooks from economic bellwethers like Ford and Palantir cast doubt...
Powering ahead
04 May, 2025
• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain....
US payrolls in focus
01 May, 2025
• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY....
Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall
01 May, 2025
Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners....
US economic tariff pain
30 April, 2025
• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs...
Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy
30 April, 2025
A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its...
Tariff impacts starting to show
29 April, 2025
• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further...
Easing Trade Tensions Support Dollar, Loonie Languishes on Still-Unknown Election Result
29 April, 2025
Market sentiment is holding firm this morning as earnings reports come in, the cadence of data releases increases, and trade tensions show further signs of easing. Treasury yields are holding steady, S&P...
Canadian Dollar Slides as Projections Show Carney’s Liberals Missing Majority
28 April, 2025
Mark Carney emerged victorious in this evening’s Canadian election – reflecting voter confidence in the Prime Minister’s technocratic background and his commitment to defending the country’s economic sovereignty...
Tariff uncertainty lingers
28 April, 2025
• He said, Xi Said. Confusion about whether US/China are in tariff talks. US equities consolidated overnight, while US yields & USD lost ground.• AUD rebound. AUD bounced back strongly the past few...
Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
06 May, 2025
The dollar is retreating and North American equity futures are setting up for a second day of losses after a series of downbeat earnings outlooks from economic bellwethers like Ford and Palantir cast doubt...
Powering ahead
04 May, 2025
• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain....
US payrolls in focus
01 May, 2025
• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY....
Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall
01 May, 2025
Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners....
US economic tariff pain
30 April, 2025
• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs...

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