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Chartbook: March 27

Charts from this week's internal trading call:

Markets are still behaving irrationally.

Fixed income vols remain well above FX.

Short dollar positions are shrinking.

European energy prices are reverting, services are not.

US inflation remains well above target.

Fed officials remain intent on hiking.

Consumer confidence is likely to fall.

The yield curve is un-inverting.

Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound
10 hours ago
Japan steps into FX markets
3 days ago
Currency markets are roiled as noise level ramps up
4 days ago
Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
4 days ago
Market caution returns as US plans extended Iran blockade
5 days ago
Dollar rises as Iran headlines, policy decisions, and earnings reports intersect
6 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound
04 May, 2026
Happy Monday. Oil prices are reverting higher and the dollar is holding steady after President Donald Trump announced plans to “guide”—but not escort—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command,...
Japan steps into FX markets
30 April, 2026
• JPY jump. USD weaker as Japanese officials intervene to prop up the very weak JPY. This & positive sentiment boosted the AUD & NZD.• Macro trends. Further bouts of JPY intervention possible....
Currency markets are roiled as noise level ramps up
30 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is beating a retreat from two-week highs as traders process the implications from four major central bank decisions, three critical economic data releases, another leg higher in...
Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
29 April, 2026
• Market wobbles. Jump in oil & ‘hawkish’ vibes from US Fed rattled investors. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation accelerates, but not...
Market caution returns as US plans extended Iran blockade
29 April, 2026
Oil benchmarks and the dollar are extending yesterday’s gains after the Wall Street Journal said US president Donald Trump is preparing to maintain an indefinite blockade against Iranian shipping, rather...
Dollar rises as Iran headlines, policy decisions, and earnings reports intersect
28 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing and Brent crude prices are back above $110 a barrel as the US and Iran fail to make meaningful progress toward a deal that might relieve strain on global energy markets....
Hopeful markets
27 April, 2026
• Upbeat vibes. Reports Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. Equities rose. AUD near top of its range. But oil markets sceptical.• Event radar. US/Iran still in focus. Australian...
Markets retreat as battle lines in Mideast conflict harden
23 April, 2026
Financial markets are back in risk-off mode as Middle East peace talks show signs of stalling, with both sides continuing to enforce blockades on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is holding...
Confused Iran headlines keep markets hemmed in
22 April, 2026
Good morning. Markets are struggling to find direction as conflicting signals on the war in Iran leave traders rudderless. Vice President JD Vance yesterday postponed a trip to Pakistan after Iranian officials...
Will they or won't they
21 April, 2026
• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales....

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