Chartbook: March 21

A fragile sense of calm is returning to financial markets this morning as investors revert to betting on an aggressive easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is back down to 4.88 percent after flirting with the 5-percent threshold, long-dated bonds in both the UK and Japan are coming off levels last hit in the nineties, and spreads within the euro area are contracting,...

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment overnight with equities rising, bond yields falling, & the USD weaker. AUD/USD rebounded.• US data. US job openings weaker than expected. Cracks in the US jobs market are widening. US Fed looks set to lower rates over the next few meetings.• AU GDP. Growth stronger than forecast. Private sector activity picked up. RBA Gov. Bullock indicated if this continues...

A global selloff in long-term government bond markets is extending this morning amid a wholesale reappraisal of sovereign debt and inflation risks. Thirty-year securities are coming under the heaviest pressure, with US Treasury yields hovering near 5 percent, Japanese ultra-long bonds holding near record highs*, and British gilts offering their highest rates since 1998. Shorter-dated yields remain...

• Debt jitters. Concerns about UK debt pushed up yields & weighed on GBP. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD lost some ground.• AU growth. Q2 GDP released today. A few push-pull forces at work. Growth expected to have picked up. RBA set to continue to lower rates slowly.• Macro events. BoE members speak tonight, as does RBA Gov. Bullock & Fed voter Musalem. US JOLTS job openings data...

Traders are cutting risk and global interest rates are ratcheting higher as investors sell long-duration instruments this morning, suggesting that a relatively calm summer in financial markets is quickly coming to a rude end. Treasury yields are climbing across the end of the curve, equity futures are retreating ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is surging against all of its major rivals...

• Quiet markets. US holiday overnight. European equities ticked up. USD a bit softer. AUD near the top of its multi-week range.• Economic trends. US macro headwinds continue to build. Markets are pricing in a stream of US Fed interest rate cuts from the mid-September meeting.• Event Radar. AU GDP due Wednesday. US ISM survey out tonight. Later in the week focus will be on the monthly US jobs report...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in July, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate cuts beyond September’s widely-anticipated move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent from the prior month, matching market forecasts as a number of key...

• Consolidation. Modest moves across markets. US bond yields fell again. AUD ticked higher. AUD also strengthened a bit on most of the major crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation re-accelerated with base-effects related to electricity subsidies a factor. We expect the RBA to continue to ease policy slowly.• Data flow. Fed Governor Waller speaks tomorrow. US PCE deflator due Friday night. Next week AU GDP &...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Powell said at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park this morning, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks...

The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering expectations for a clear rate-cutting message from chair Jerome Powell at this morning’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady around the 4.33-percent...