Chartbook: March 21

The US dollar, Treasuries, and stock market indices are all trading slightly lower this morning after the Trump administration stepped up its assault on the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell’s management of a headquarters renovation project. According to a highly unusual video statement published last night, the Chair said he had received grand jury subpoenas...

The Trump administration sharply intensified its assault on the Federal Reserve’s independence this evening, threatening a fundamental cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system—and a key factor underpinning the dollar’s global dominance. According to multiple news sources and officials themselves, US prosecutors today served the central bank with grand jury subpoenas and a threat...

The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 50,000 jobs were added in December, undershooting a consensus forecast set around the 70,000 mark, and the previous two months were revised down by 76,000 positions....

Happy Thursday. The dollar is extending its advance for a third session after yesterday’s data underscored the US economy’s resilience, denting bearish conviction. Most major currency pairs remain rangebound, with the pound, euro and yen all holding broadly neutral technical positions against the greenback. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while equity markets are set to open a bit lower as investors...

Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction...

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are giving back the weekend’s moves as Venezuela-related geopolitical concerns recede, shifting attention to US macro conditions. The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways after a restrained round trip, while traditional havens—the yen and Swiss franc—are coming under light selling pressure, leaving the British pound and Australian dollar slightly ahead. Ten-year...

Global markets are taking the latest surge in geopolitical risk largely in stride after the United States attacked Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. A mild flight to safety is lifting the dollar, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc against their risk-sensitive rivals, Treasury yields are down slightly, and both of the major crude benchmarks—Brent and West Texas Intermediate—are...

‘Tis the calm before year-end, when all through the street,Not a currency is stirring—even the yen is tucked in its seat.Dollar short positions are hung by low vols with care,In hopes that Fed easing soon will be there.Traders are nestled all snug in their carry-trade beds,While dreams of smooth returns dance in their heads.And CFOs in their spreadsheets, and dealers in our caps,Have settled our brains...

Underlying consumer price growth slowed dramatically in the US last month, helping support expectations for a more aggressive easing campaign from the Federal Reserve in the new year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning—data that skipped the month of October—the core consumer price index rose just 2.6 percent in November over the same period last year, decelerating...

The dollar is edging higher against most major peers as yields firm in the wake of yesterday’s heavy US data slate. Ten-year Treasury rates have nudged up, equity futures are coming under mild pressure ahead of the North American open, and the Canadian dollar, euro, sterling, and yen are all trading with a softer tone. With no major economic releases on today’s calendar, investors will be focused on...