Chartbook: March 21

• Mixed markets. US equities consolidated while yields dipped & USD weakened. EUR at multi-year high. AUD at levels last traded in November.• US Fed. Tomorrow’s Fed decision in the spotlight. After being on hold since December the US Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps.• Signals matter. Fed’s guidance in focus. More cuts anticipated over coming months. But Fed may struggle to be more...

• Consolidation. Quieter markets on Friday. US equities near record highs. USD tread water. AUD hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• Central banks. US Fed expected to re-start its cutting cycle. Focus will be on updated guidance. Markets pricing in a series of Fed rate reductions.• Event Radar. China data today. Australia jobs report scheduled (Thurs). NZ GDP due. US Fed the focal point...

• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift should unfold, in our opinion. This is a medium-term USD headwind.• Data flow. On top of the US Fed meeting next week China data is due (Mon), as are US retail sales (Tues night). AU employment...

Underlying consumer price growth held relatively steady in the United States last month, and initial jobless claims jumped last week, giving the Federal Reserve room—and motivation—to cut at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.35 percent in August, marking...

• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate some vol. But outlook for a steady stream of US rate cuts should remain. This is a USD headwind.• Policy convergence. Further RBA easing anticipated. But more aggressive steps by US Fed could see rates...

Optimism is rippling across the financial markets and US equity futures are setting up for another strong open after Oracle Corp. said its contract backlog exploded by a staggering 359 percent to $455 billion in its first quarter, underscoring the sheer scale of the ongoing buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. By our estimates, the top ten AI-focused companies listed on US exchanges...

• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated. Pace of jobs growth looks a lot slower. US Fed likely to deliver a series of rate cuts.• Inflation trends. US producer price inflation due tonight. Consumer prices out tomorrow. Will the data show greater...

A sense of optimism is percolating across global financial markets this morning, underpinned by hopes for a drawn-out monetary easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Long-term bond yields are coming down across most advanced economies, equity indices are advancing, and currency markets are displaying risk-on characteristics, with the dollar retreating against all of its major peers. The Bureau of...

• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls due tonight. Negative revisions could keep USD on backfoot, a tailwind for other currencies.• Inflation pulse. US producer & consumer prices due later this week. More signs of tariff driven inflation...

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of the curve. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm, equity futures are setting up for gains at the North American open, and the dollar is trading slightly lower against its major peers after a relatively-subdued...