The dollar is steamrolling over its major counterparts again this morning as investors unwind exposures in other jurisdictions and pile into bets on continued gains in American equity markets. The trade-weighted greenback is up around a quarter-percent from yesterday’s North American close, Treasury yields are slipping across the front end of the curve, and stock market futures are pointing to another...

The “Go Big or Go Home” mentality was on display once again in NZ today after the RBNZ delivered an outsized 50bp interest rate cut as it attempts to jolt the stuttering economy back to life. The decision lowers the RBNZ’s official cash rate to 2.5%. This is ~300bps below the peak reached in 2023/24 when the world was fighting the post COVID inflation surge. As our chart shows, outside of the Global...

Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker...

• Push-pull forces. US shutdown still in place. Geopolitics outside US generates some vol. EUR & JPY lose ground. AUD & NZD edge up a little.• Japan politics. Shock leadership selection jolted Japanese markets. Nikkei surged & JPY weakened on prospect of fewer rate hikes & fiscal stimulus.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Debate is on the size with markets split between...

The dollar is again winning the cleanest-dirty-shirt contest this morning as mounting political turmoil in Japan and the euro area casts a pall over currency markets. The yen is down almost 2 percent and Japanese equity markets are soaring after Sanae Takaichi unexpectedly triumphed in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race, defying polls that had put her rival, Shinjiro Koizumi, ahead among...

Rumours of the dollar’s shutdown-inflicted death have been greatly exaggerated. The greenback is holding firm against its major rivals this morning despite confirmation that the US government will remain crippled into a second week, indicating that traders don’t expect the political impasse to result in any meaningful diminishment in the global appetite for American financial assets. On a week-to-date...

• Holding on. Markets take the latest US shutdown in stride. US equities edged up while bond yields slipped back. USD & AUD tread water.• US shutdown. No real sense of urgency to strike a deal quickly. US shutdown could drag out. This might be a negative for US growth & the USD.• Data void. US government shutdown also means US economic data, such as Friday’s non-farm payrolls report,...

• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more ‘hawkish’. Sticky inflation & improving growth means another rate cut isn’t guaranteed.• US shutdown. Without a last minute deal another US government shutdown will kick off today...

As widely anticipated, particularly after last week’s hotter monthly Australian CPI figures, the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% at today’s meeting. The Board’s decision was unanimous, and there was little firm guidance suggesting any degree of urgency to lower interest rates again in the near-term, in our view. From our perspective key comments within the post meeting statement leant relatively more...

• Risk uptick. US equities ended a 3-day losing streak on Friday. USD eased back. AUD & NZD tick up. No change expected by RBA this week.• US shutdown. US politics in focus with another shutdown looming. Last minute deal needed. A shutdown could see US data releases put on hold.• Event Radar. In addition to the risk of a US government shutdown the RBA meets (Tues). China PMIs also out (Tues) as...