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Chartbook: April 17

Exhibit 1

There's only one story in FX markets.

Change In Spot Exchange Rate Against USD, Relative to September 27, 2022, %

Exhibit 2

Supplier costs are tumbling.

Change in Producer Price Index, %

Exhibit 3

Inflation is rolling over. Everywhere.

Annual Change in Core Consumer Prices, %

Exhibit 4

Chinese exports surged in March.

Monthly Exports, Billions USD

Exhibit 5

Growth is beating expectations.

Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices for China, Chained 2012 Prices for US, %

Exhibit 6

Volatility expectations are falling.

Change In Index Value, Relative to January 2, 2019, %

Exhibit 7

The dollar is firmly on the defensive.

Trade-Weighted Dollar Indices

Exhibit 8

Speculators are rebuilding short positions.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars

Exhibit 9

Carry trades could outperform.

Year to Date Return, Carry and Volatility-Adjusted Carry, %

Exhibit 10

But rate expectations look unrealistic.

Implied Federal Funds Rate, %

Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets
4 days ago
Markets climb on Iran optimism
5 days ago
Sentiment vs reality
5 days ago
Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy
6 days ago
Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets
1 week ago
War, what is it good for?
1 week ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets
02 April, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices jumped and currency markets slid back into risk-aversion mode last night when Donald Trump claimed the US-Israeli war against Iran was “nearing completion” but failed to offer...
Markets climb on Iran optimism
01 April, 2026
Markets are soaring after US President Donald Trump announced an end to the war in Iran, saying that he and parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf had “really hit it off” during a FaceTime call...
Sentiment vs reality
31 March, 2026
• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water...
Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy
31 March, 2026
Financial markets are staging yet another relief rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is considering declaring victory in the Iran conflict without establishing control over the...
Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets
30 March, 2026
The dollar is on course for its strongest monthly performance since July and Brent crude is tracking what could be a record monthly gain as the US-Israeli war against Iran devolves into a protracted regional...
War, what is it good for?
29 March, 2026
• Conflict concerns. Risk sentiment negative. Oil prices higher. Equities lower. USD edging up. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. AUD ~4.7% from its March peak.• Global economy. More volatility likely. Impact...
Rattled markets
26 March, 2026
• Negative vibes. Ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, oil & yields higher. USD firmer. AUD under pressure.• Twists & turns. Situation in Middle...
Iran optimism fades, leaving FX markets bracing for more turbulence
26 March, 2026
Good morning. Risk appetite is deteriorating across the financial system as the Middle East conflict shows little sign of easing ahead of President Trump’s deadline for resuming military strikes...
Markets rally on peace hopes
25 March, 2026
A wave of cautious optimism is washing over financial markets after the United States reportedly offered Iran a 15-point peace plan, reinforcing the belief that Washington is looking for an exit from the...
Oil prices retrace higher as Mideast conflict continues
24 March, 2026
Energy prices are ratcheting higher once again as fighting in the Middle East rages unabated, suggesting that President Donald Trump’s efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp have not met with success thus...

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