Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction...

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are giving back the weekend’s moves as Venezuela-related geopolitical concerns recede, shifting attention to US macro conditions. The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways after a restrained round trip, while traditional havens—the yen and Swiss franc—are coming under light selling pressure, leaving the British pound and Australian dollar slightly ahead. Ten-year...

Global markets are taking the latest surge in geopolitical risk largely in stride after the United States attacked Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. A mild flight to safety is lifting the dollar, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc against their risk-sensitive rivals, Treasury yields are down slightly, and both of the major crude benchmarks—Brent and West Texas Intermediate—are...

‘Tis the calm before year-end, when all through the street,Not a currency is stirring—even the yen is tucked in its seat.Dollar short positions are hung by low vols with care,In hopes that Fed easing soon will be there.Traders are nestled all snug in their carry-trade beds,While dreams of smooth returns dance in their heads.And CFOs in their spreadsheets, and dealers in our caps,Have settled our brains...

Underlying consumer price growth slowed dramatically in the US last month, helping support expectations for a more aggressive easing campaign from the Federal Reserve in the new year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning—data that skipped the month of October—the core consumer price index rose just 2.6 percent in November over the same period last year, decelerating...

The dollar is edging higher against most major peers as yields firm in the wake of yesterday’s heavy US data slate. Ten-year Treasury rates have nudged up, equity futures are coming under mild pressure ahead of the North American open, and the Canadian dollar, euro, sterling, and yen are all trading with a softer tone. With no major economic releases on today’s calendar, investors will be focused on...

• Mixed signals. US data crosscurrents resulted in modest net market moves overnight. US equities consolidated. Oil prices fell. AUD lost a bit of ground.• US data. Core retail sales stronger, but PMIs underwhelmed. Labour market slack increasing with US unemployment highest since Q3 2021.• Macro events. NZ Q3 GDP due tomorrow. US CPI and ECB/BoE/BoJ meetings later this week. BoE expected to cut while...

US labour markets continued to cool in October and November, slightly raising market bets on a stepped-up easing campaign from the Federal Reserve next year. According to delayed data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a total -41,000 jobs were lost over the last two months—representing an undershoot relative to consensus forecasts—while the previous two months were revised lower by a...

Currency markets are trading cautiously as participants prepare to close the books on 2025, with many cutting exposure ahead of a week laden with economic data and central bank event risks. The dollar is adding to last week’s losses amid a debate over whether the next meaningful move comes from a narrowing in cross-currency rate differentials or a hawkish repricing in US growth expectations, trading...

• Equity wobbles. Fresh valuation concerns weighed on US equities on Friday. AUD & NZD lost a bit of ground, but still rose over the past week.• Event Radar. NZ GDP is out (Thurs). US jobs data, retail sales, & CPI due this week. ECB looks set to hold, BoE could cut, & BoJ might hike rates. Global Trends Outside of a narrowly based pullback in US equities on Friday stemming from fresh...