For the Australian dollar, a more bullish scenario than our baseline outlook would stem from China’s economic revival exceeding expectations – particularly if it is led by a policy-induced upswing in commodity-intensive infrastructure spending. Stronger momentum in China would be a positive impulse for Australia’s terms of trade, the domestic and regional economies, and the currency. In our opinion, the Australian dollar could also outperform if the global economy remains resilient in the face of tighter monetary and credit conditions, and inflation decelerates substantially without aggressive policy actions inflicting much damage on labour markets or generating financial stability risks. However, we judge this type of situation to be relatively unlikely.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
Japanese market jolt
06 October, 2025
• Push-pull forces. US shutdown still in place. Geopolitics outside US generates some vol. EUR & JPY lose ground. AUD & NZD edge up a little.• Japan politics. Shock leadership selection jolted...
Political turmoil plays havoc with currency markets, boosts dollar
06 October, 2025
The dollar is again winning the cleanest-dirty-shirt contest this morning as mounting political turmoil in Japan and the euro area casts a pall over currency markets. The yen is down almost 2 percent and...
Currency trading ranges shrink as markets continue to ignore shutdown risks
03 October, 2025
Rumours of the dollar’s shutdown-inflicted death have been greatly exaggerated. The greenback is holding firm against its major rivals this morning despite confirmation that the US government will remain...
US shutdown vacuum
01 October, 2025
• Holding on. Markets take the latest US shutdown in stride. US equities edged up while bond yields slipped back. USD & AUD tread water.• US shutdown. No real sense of urgency to strike a deal quickly....
Another US government shutdown
30 September, 2025
• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more...
RBA: any more easing left?
30 September, 2025
As widely anticipated, particularly after last week’s hotter monthly Australian CPI figures, the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% at today’s meeting. The Board’s decision was unanimous, and there was little...
US government shutdown looming
28 September, 2025
• Risk uptick. US equities ended a 3-day losing streak on Friday. USD eased back. AUD & NZD tick up. No change expected by RBA this week.• US shutdown. US politics in focus with another shutdown looming....
US Consumer Demand Holds Up, Supporting The Dollar's Rate Premium
26 September, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed as expected in August and personal income and spending numbers beat forecasts, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate...
Dollar Advances As Easing Expectations Pull Back
25 September, 2025
The dollar is trading near a two-week high this morning as traders pull back on overly-optimistic monetary easing expectations and adjust positions amid heavy quarter-end rebalancing. The Canadian dollar,...
Inflation & the RBA
24 September, 2025
• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data...