Weekly Chartbook

The dollar is back on the defensive this morning as markets absorb yesterday’s unexpectedly-neutral Federal Reserve rate cut as well as a stumble in the overheated US tech complex ahead of next week’s cluster of event risks. Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve, and traders are assigning a marginally higher probability to additional easing in 2026 after yesterday’s decision landed with...

• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment data due today. Monthly figures are volatile. Another solid report would reinforce views RBA may hike rates in early-2026. Global Trends The US Fed meeting was the market focal point overnight....

The Federal Reserve cut rates for a third consecutive time this afternoon, and opened the door to a January pause amid growing uncertainty on the economy’s underlying trajectory. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by a surprisingly balanced 9-to-3 margin to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee...

As had been almost universally expected, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and again clearly signalled that policy rates are sitting at near-neutral levels, minimising the likelihood of another move in the coming months. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent after cutting at both the September and October meetings, and...

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate. Global risk assets are drifting lower, yields are a touch firmer, and the dollar is trading in the middle of its recent trading range as investors await what is widely expected to be a third consecutive “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. Data published yesterday showed US labour markets cooling, but not at an alarming rate. On the positive...

• Consolidation. US equities tread water ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision. The USD index ticked up. AUD outperformed due to RBA rhetoric.• RBA shift. No change in rates yesterday but there were ‘hawkish’ signals. Inflation risks have changed. February meeting looks ‘live’ for a rate hike.• US Fed. Another rate cut expected. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance....

Currency markets are drifting into Tuesday with a wary, slightly defensive tone, caught between a thin data calendar, declining volumes, and the growing sense that policy divergences are about to reshape the global landscape. Treasury yields are a touch softer after yesterday’s curve-steepening move, equity futures are pointing marginally lower, and the dollar is trading sideways against all of its...

The dollar is edging lower against a basket of its most-traded rivals as investors focus attention on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting—and on the implications for monetary policy in 2026. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are parked near the 4.15-percent mark, equity futures are holding steady ahead of the North American open, and the euro, pound, and Japanese yen are all firmly rangebound amid...

• Solid run. US equities rose on Friday, as did bond yields. USD index tread water. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) strengthened.• Central banks. No change by RBA (Tues), however tone could be ‘hawkish’. US Fed (Thurs morning) set to cut rates but may not signal another near-term move. Global Trends Markets had a relatively quiet end to last week with a string of government shutdown...

Consolidative price action is taking place across financial markets this morning as risk appetite improves ahead of next week’s all-important Federal Reserve meeting. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm around the 4.11-percent handle, the dollar is trading sideways, and equity futures are setting for a continuation of an almost two week-long Santa Claus rally. Most major currencies...