Chartbook: March 14

Consolidative price action is taking place across financial markets this morning as risk appetite improves ahead of next week’s all-important Federal Reserve meeting. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm around the 4.11-percent handle, the dollar is trading sideways, and equity futures are setting for a continuation of an almost two week-long Santa Claus rally. Most major currencies...

The dollar is cruising toward an eighth consecutive day of losses—its longest losing streak since 2020—as the Japanese yen climbs and traders double down on expectations for an aggressive easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Japanese ten-year yields are holding near their highest levels since the global financial crisis and rate differentials are tightening in the yen’s favour after Bloomberg...

• US data. Weaker US ADP employment reinforced US Fed rate cut bets. US equities ticked up & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD supported.• AU GDP. Topline growth a bit softer than anticipated in Q3, but under the hood private sector momentum picked up speed. Price pressures still evident.• RBA & Fed. Odds next move by RBA is up not down continue to rise. By contrast, a series of US Fed cuts...

• Positive tone. Limited news flow. Upbeat market vibes continue. US equities rose again. Cyclical currencies like the AUD & NZD ticked up further.• AU GDP. Australian Q3 growth data out today. Partial indicators point to solid private sector activity. This may bolster the case for no more RBA rate cuts.• US data. ADP employment & services ISM out tonight. ADP is last major jobs report before...

The slow-motion flight to safety that began on the weekend is showing signs of exhaustion in currency markets this morning, but sentiment remains fragile. Japanese government bond yields are stabilising after a hawkish speech from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda triggered a selloff in yesterday’s session, and rates are edging down across most advanced-economy debt markets. Benchmark ten-year US Treasury...

Financial markets are kicking off December in a turbulent fashion as policy tightening hints from the Bank of Japan nudge global rates higher and dull the dollar’s appeal. Ten-year Treasury yields are up nearly four basis points, equity futures are pointing to small early declines, and the greenback is slipping against a broad basket of peers ahead of the North American open. The yen is outperforming...

• Positive trends. Risk sentiment remained positive on Friday. US & European equities rose, as did cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD.• AU/NZ factors. After last week’s AU CPI & signals from the RBNZ, markets are toying with the idea the next move in AU & NZ rates may be up not down.• Event Radar. Australia Q3 GDP is out (Weds). In the US, focus should be on the ISM indices,...

Currencies are trading on a mixed footing this morning as investors pivot from expecting some Federal Reserve easing to anticipating too much. The dollar slumped, equity markets rallied, and yield curves shifted in yesterday’s session when Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett had become the front-runner in the race to replace Jerome Powell at the head of the world’s most powerful central bank. Hassett—now...

• Upbeat vibes. US equities rose while bond yields dipped. USD softer. Run of weak US data supported the case for another US Fed rate cut in December.• RBNZ meeting. NZD ticks up ahead of RBNZ decision. Another cut expected with markets looking for a 25bp move. Is the easing cycle almost over?• AU CPI. First full monthly CPI report out. Data could be volatile the next few months. Will it reinforce...

Financial markets are back in recovery mode and Nasdaq is coming off its best day in six months as growing evidence of a “Fed put” boosts risk appetite. Index futures are pointing to further gains, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is losing altitude after Federal Reserve officials expressed deepening concern about labour market softness, prompting a recovery in technology stocks...