Chartbook: March 14

• Holding on. Markets take the latest US shutdown in stride. US equities edged up while bond yields slipped back. USD & AUD tread water.• US shutdown. No real sense of urgency to strike a deal quickly. US shutdown could drag out. This might be a negative for US growth & the USD.• Data void. US government shutdown also means US economic data, such as Friday’s non-farm payrolls report,...

• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more ‘hawkish’. Sticky inflation & improving growth means another rate cut isn’t guaranteed.• US shutdown. Without a last minute deal another US government shutdown will kick off today...

As widely anticipated, particularly after last week’s hotter monthly Australian CPI figures, the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% at today’s meeting. The Board’s decision was unanimous, and there was little firm guidance suggesting any degree of urgency to lower interest rates again in the near-term, in our view. From our perspective key comments within the post meeting statement leant relatively more...

• Risk uptick. US equities ended a 3-day losing streak on Friday. USD eased back. AUD & NZD tick up. No change expected by RBA this week.• US shutdown. US politics in focus with another shutdown looming. Last minute deal needed. A shutdown could see US data releases put on hold.• Event Radar. In addition to the risk of a US government shutdown the RBA meets (Tues). China PMIs also out (Tues) as...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed as expected in August and personal income and spending numbers beat forecasts, making it more difficult to justify an aggressive course of rate cuts in the coming months. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, closely matching...

The dollar is trading near a two-week high this morning as traders pull back on overly-optimistic monetary easing expectations and adjust positions amid heavy quarter-end rebalancing. The Canadian dollar, British pound, euro, and Japanese yen are all holding near the lower ends of their technical trading ranges, Treasuries are holding steady, and equity markets are licking their wounds after a modest...

• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data raises doubts about further RBA rate cuts. Relative policy trends can be AUD supportive. Global Trends There were a few more market wobbles overnight with US equities declining modestly for the second...

After most Federal Reserve officials—with the notable exception of Stephen Miran—sounded a consistently-cautious and incrementally-hawkish tone in appearances during the early part of the week, the US dollar is staging a recovery against its major peers—including the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar—Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity futures are setting up for small...

• FX consolidation. In contrast to the dip in US equities & yields the USD tread water. AUD near ~$0.66. Fed Chair Powell notes the “challenging situation”.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator due today. Base effects & leading indicators point to a pick up in inflation. RBA looks set to remain on a different path to its peers. Global Trends Steady as she goes, at least in FX, with the...

The dollar is treading water against its major peers, Treasury yields are drifting lower, and equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open as investors parse mixed signals emanating from Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday’s chorus of Fed speakers was, on balance, decidedly hawkish. St. Louis’ Alberto Musalem said “I supported the 25-basis-point reduction in the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market...