Canada’s economy showed clear signs of deceleration in the third quarter, reducing market-implied odds on further rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Although inflation measures remain sticky and above the central bank’s target range, excess demand is clearly ebbing, and labour market tightness is beginning to ease. Conditions will likely worsen in the months ahead as the early autumn surge in global borrowing costs inflicts pain on one of the world’s most deeply over-leveraged private sectors hard, and we expect rate differentials to tilt more firmly against Canada into early 2024, offsetting commodity price gains and a generalized dollar decline in dragging the loonie lower.
Latest Analysis
Latest Analysis
The art of the deal
08 May, 2025
• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond...
Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire
08 May, 2025
Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning,...
Push-pull forces
07 May, 2025
• Mixed markets. US equities end a bit higher overnight, while bond yields eased & the USD rose. AUD & NZD gave back ground over the past 24hrs.• Macro news. US/China reportedly set to hold trade...
Markets Climb On Trade Negotiation Hopes
07 May, 2025
The US dollar looks set to snap a three-day losing streak and stock market futures are climbing ahead of the North American open after Beijing and Washington said trade talks between China and the United...
Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing
06 May, 2025
The dollar is retreating and North American equity futures are setting up for a second day of losses after a series of downbeat earnings outlooks from economic bellwethers like Ford and Palantir cast doubt...
Powering ahead
04 May, 2025
• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain....
US payrolls in focus
01 May, 2025
• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY....
Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall
01 May, 2025
Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners....
US economic tariff pain
30 April, 2025
• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs...
Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy
30 April, 2025
A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its...