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JPY

26 Jun 2023

JPY: Asymmetric risks building

It has been one-way traffic for the JPY over recent weeks. The JPY has depreciated rather sharply against a range of other currencies, including the USD, AUD, and SGD since the Bank of Japan disappointed markets by maintaining its ultra-accommodative stance in late-April. Over the same period interest rate expectations for other major central banks like the RBA, Bank of England, and US Fed have risen (to differing degrees) due to ongoing inflation pressures, while market sentiment has also generally been positive. Given where USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, SGD/JPY, and the JPY more broadly are now trading, we think the distribution of...

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25 Jun 2023

Recession risks rattle markets

• Global worries. PMI data underwhelmed reinforcing recession concerns. Equities & bond yields fell, while the USD has strengthened.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has weighed on the cyclical AUD. Locally, the CPI indicator (Weds) & retail sales (Thurs) can influence RBA rate hike expectations.• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, & BoJ Governor Ueda speak on Wednesday. Risks markets remained under pressure at the end of last week as global recession concerns rattled nerves. Weekend geopolitical developments in Russia is another thing to add to the ‘worry wall’. Economically, the June business PMIs for the...

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22 Jun 2023

Hawks in the BoE nest

• Hawkish surprise. BoE delivered a 50bp hike. At 5% the BoE bank rate is at its highest since early-2008. High inflation points to more hikes to come.• Markets thinking ahead. UK long-end bond yields & GBP dipped as the negative economic impacts of higher rates start to become more of a focus.• Firmer USD. US yields & the USD rose. AUD slipped back further. Weaker global growth is a negative backdrop for risk sentiment & the AUD. Central banks remain laser focused on breaking the back of high/sticky inflation, with growth considerations still down the pecking order. Overnight, the...

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21 Jun 2023

Another BoE rate hike expected

• Mixed markets. Equities lower. US yields little changed but European yields rose. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 2 more hikes is a “pretty good guess”.• Hot UK inflation. UK core inflation at its highest since 1992. Bank of England set to hike again tonight. The debate is on the size of the move.• AUD mixed. AUD hovering near ~$0.68. AUD has lost ground against the EUR & JPY over the past few days. External headwinds still in place for the AUD. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. Equities were a bit weaker, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (S&P500 & EuroStoxx50...

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20 Jun 2023

Risk assets pause for breath as Fed pushback becomes more likely

Markets are turning more cautious after last week’s “melt-up” in risk assets, with the dollar climbing against its rivals, Treasury yields ticking higher, and equity markets beating a slow retreat. The British pound is holding near to a ten-month high against the euro and a 14-month peak against the dollar, supported by rising rate expectations. Following strong labour market and wage growth data, the latest inflation print, out tomorrow morning, is expected to show headline price growth easing only slightly in the the month of May, and the core measure is seen holding close to 6.8 percent in year-over-year terms. In response,...

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