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United States

Economics

Markets
Economics

United States

Real Gross Domestic Product

Contributors to real gross domestic product growth, quarter-over-quarter change, annualized rate, updates quarterly

Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the economy. Comprises private consumption and investment, inventory buildup, government spending and net exports. Markets watch this indicator to gauge the strength and composition of growth.

United States

Yield Curve

10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year, %,

Measures the gap between long-term and short-term government borrowing rates - in this case between 10- and 2-year Treasury instruments. Because investors normally require more compensation for taking longer-term risk, the yield curve is typically positively-sloped. But an inverted curve can appear when investors believe interest rates will decline in the future - a situation that can arise when inflation is seen subsiding, or when a recession is expected. An inversion of the yield curve has preceded every US recession for the past half century.

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Non-farm payrolls, monthly change, 3-month average change, thousands, SA, updates monthly

Measures the number of jobs added in the United States over the previous month. The number is typically released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is viewed by investors as a critical indicator of the overall economic health of the US economy, and as a key driver of Federal Reserve policy. The 3-month average helps smooth out volatility, and helps illuminate the underlying trend.

United States

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate and year-over-year wage growth for production and non-supervisory workers, SA, updates monthly

The percentage of the labour force currently not working but actively seeking employment, alongside year-over-year wage growth for production and non-supervisory workers. Markets closely monitor movements in unemployment and wages because they provide a real-time signal of the economy’s cyclical position. Tight labour markets and accelerating pay growth can indicate rising demand pressures and an increased risk of inflation, while rising unemployment and slowing wages typically point to cooling activity and easing price pressures. Together, these indicators help shape expectations for monetary policy, growth, and financial-market conditions.

United States

Personal Consumption Expenditures

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is a measure of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption, and is reported in two ways: comprehensively, using all categories, and more narrowly, excluding highly-volatile food and energy costs. The latter is known as the Core measure, and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

United States

Consumer Prices

Consumer Price Indices, Annual Change, %, NSA, Updates Monthly

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change over time in the average prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports both a “All Items” inflation number that includes all items, and a “Core” number that strips out more volatile food and energy prices. "Services ex. Energy" captures non-tangible products with energy services excluded, and the "core-core" measure is a special aggregate that includes all items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks.

United States

Cumulative Change in Prices

Cumulative Change in Selected Price Indices Since January 2000, %, SA

The Cumulative Change in Prices chart shows percentage price changes for a select group of goods and services relative to a January 2000 baseline. The calculations are derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics detailed tables, and are meant to illustrate relative price divergences across categories.

United States

Trade Balance

Goods and Services Trade Balance, total, and ex.petroleum, billions USD, SA, updates monthly

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported - generating a trade surplus - and a negative number indicates a deficit. Trade imbalances may reflect fleeting differences in growth rates or more permanent factors in the composition of growth or the endowment and price of natural resources.

United States

Policy Rate

Fed Fund target range, mid-point

The Federal Funds target range is the target interest rate band set by the Federal Open Market Committee. This is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight, and influences short-term rates across the global financial system.

United States

Money Supply Growth

M2 Money Supply, Annual Change, %, SA, Updates Monthly

M2 Money Supply is a measure of currency that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash. Markets don’t typically respond directly to changes in M2, but growth in the money supply can influence inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates over longer time horizons.

United States

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation), Billions USD

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is a weekly financial statement that shows what the central bank owes and owns. The Fed’s assets consist primarily of Treasury instruments and agency mortgage-backed securities. Its liabilities are mostly currency in circulation, commercial bank reserves, and reverse repurchase agreements collateralized using Treasury securities. The balance sheet is used to influence interest rates - when officials want to stimulate the economy, it expands, and when they wish to tighten financial conditions, it shrinks.

United States

Debt Ratios

Credit to General Government, Non-Financial Corporate, and Household Sectors, % of Gross Domestic Product at Market Value

Aggregate Debt Ratios measure the total borrowing of the general government, non-financial corporate, and household sectors, expressed as a share of gross domestic product. Total debt is followed by investors as a gauge of the vulnerability of an economy to financial shocks. An overly fast pace of debt growth is also frequently associated with a buildup of unproductive investment and excessively high asset valuations.

United States

Net International Investment Position

Net International Investment Position, Billions USD, Updates Annually

The net international investment position is the difference between the external financial assets and liabilities of a nation. A nation with a positive position is a creditor nation and is generally considered a safe haven in financial markets. A nation with a negative position is a debtor nation, with deeper balance of payments vulnerabilities.

Latest Analysis

All Commentary
US jobs data underwhelms
02 July, 2026
• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials...
US job creation slows, clobbering Fed tightening bets
02 July, 2026
The US job creation engine slowed in June, weighing on expectations for a renewed tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
US jobs report in focus
01 July, 2026
• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the...
Dollar grinds higher into quarter end
30 June, 2026
Good morning. In the absence of any major volatility catalysts, the dollar is adding to its gains and Treasury yields are holding firm, with equity futures pointing to a flat open. Oil prices have fallen...
AUD still on struggle street
29 June, 2026
• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today....
Dollar holds firm ahead of potentially-dangerous week
29 June, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is holding near a 13-month high and Treasury yields are edging upward as equity futures point to a modest advance at the open, with the Nasdaq set to recover some ground after...
Cross-currents & consolidation
25 June, 2026
• Holding on. Consolidation across most markets after the recent turbulence. USD treads water. AUD hovering near ~$0.69, ~5% from its May peak.• Data flow. AU jobs rebound in May, but that only unwound...
Markets go quiet ahead of US inflation update
25 June, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is edging lower and trading ranges are narrowing across currency markets ahead of the personal consumption expenditures report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—at...
AUD under pressure
24 June, 2026
• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian...
Dollar keeps steamrolling forward
24 June, 2026
Good morning. The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a sixteen-month high, Treasury yields are slipping, and US equity futures are rebounding after a steep technology-led selloff earlier in the week. Oil...

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