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United States

Markets
Economics

United States

Real Gross Domestic Product

Contributors to real gross domestic product growth, quarter-over-quarter change, annualized rate, updates quarterly

Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the economy. Comprises private consumption and investment, inventory buildup, government spending and net exports. Markets watch this indicator to gauge the strength and composition of growth.

United States

Yield Curve

10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year, %,

Measures the gap between long-term and short-term government borrowing rates - in this case between 10- and 2-year Treasury instruments. Because investors normally require more compensation for taking longer-term risk, the yield curve is typically positively-sloped. But an inverted curve can appear when investors believe interest rates will decline in the future - a situation that can arise when inflation is seen subsiding, or when a recession is expected. An inversion of the yield curve has preceded every US recession for the past half century.

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Non-Farm Payrolls, monthly change, 3-month average change, thousands, SA, updates monthly

Measures the number of jobs added in the United States over the previous month. The number is typically released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is viewed by investors as a critical indicator of the overall economic health of the US economy, and as a key driver of Federal Reserve policy. The 3-month average helps smooth out volatility, and helps illuminate the underlying trend.

United States

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate, All Persons, %, SA, Updated Monthly

The Unemployment Rate represents the percentage of the labour force currently not working but actively seeking employment. Markets follow changes in unemployment because they can reflect the cyclical health of the economy and the likelihood that wage demands may create inflationary pressures.

United States

Personal Consumption Expenditures

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is a measure of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption, and is reported in two ways: comprehensively, using all categories, and more narrowly, excluding highly-volatile food and energy costs. The latter is known as the Core measure, and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

United States

Consumer Prices

Consumer Price Indices, Annual Change, %, NSA, Updates Monthly

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change over time in the average prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports both a “All Items” inflation number that includes all items, and a “Core” number that strips out more volatile food and energy prices. "Services ex. Energy" captures non-tangible products with energy services excluded, and the "core-core" measure is a special aggregate that includes all items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks.

United States

Cumulative Change in Prices

Cumulative Change in Selected Price Indices Since January 2000, %, SA

The Cumulative Change in Prices chart shows percentage price changes for a select group of goods and services relative to a January 2000 baseline. The calculations are derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics detailed tables, and are meant to illustrate relative price divergences across categories.

United States

Trade Balance

Goods and Services Trade Balance, total, and ex.petroleum, billions USD, SA, updates monthly

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported - generating a trade surplus - and a negative number indicates a deficit. Trade imbalances may reflect fleeting differences in growth rates or more permanent factors in the composition of growth or the endowment and price of natural resources.

United States

Federal Funds Target Range

Upper and Lower Bounds, %

The Federal Funds Target Range is the target interest rate band set by the Federal Open Market Committee. This is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight, and influences short-term rates across the global financial system.

United States

Money Supply Growth

M2 Money Supply, Annual Change, %, SA, Updates Monthly

M2 Money Supply is a measure of currency that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash. Markets don’t typically respond directly to changes in M2, but growth in the money supply can influence inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates over longer time horizons.

United States

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation), Billions USD

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is a weekly financial statement that shows what the central bank owes and owns. The Fed’s assets consist primarily of Treasury instruments and agency mortgage-backed securities. Its liabilities are mostly currency in circulation, commercial bank reserves, and reverse repurchase agreements collateralized using Treasury securities. The balance sheet is used to influence interest rates - when officials want to stimulate the economy, it expands, and when they wish to tighten financial conditions, it shrinks.

United States

Debt Ratios

Credit to General Government, Non-Financial Corporate, and Household Sectors, % of Gross Domestic Product at Market Value

Aggregate Debt Ratios measure the total borrowing of the general government, non-financial corporate, and household sectors, expressed as a share of gross domestic product. Total debt is followed by investors as a gauge of the vulnerability of an economy to financial shocks. An overly fast pace of debt growth is also frequently associated with a buildup of unproductive investment and excessively high asset valuations.

United States

Net International Investment Position

Net International Investment Position, Billions USD, Updates Annually

The net international investment position is the difference between the external financial assets and liabilities of a nation. A nation with a positive position is a creditor nation and is generally considered a safe haven in financial markets. A nation with a negative position is a debtor nation, with deeper balance of payments vulnerabilities.

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

Worries return
17 June, 2025
• Turnaround. Middle East concerns returned overnight. Oil rose, US equities & bond yields declined. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground.• Fluid situation. More headline driven volatility looks likely...
Dollar's Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens
17 June, 2025
The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples...
Upbeat vibes. Will it last?
16 June, 2025
• Improved vibes. Turnaround in markets overnight on reports Iran is looking to restart nuclear talks. Equities rose, oil prices eased. AUD & NZD rebounded.• Macro trends. Middle East situation remains...
Geopolitical Concerns Ease Ahead of Action-Packed Week
16 June, 2025
Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank...
The fog of war
15 June, 2025
• Middle East conflict. Developments dampened sentiment. Oil prices spiked & equities slipped back. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. Geopolitical tensions can generate more...
Israeli Attack on Iran Leaves Markets Rattled
13 June, 2025
Financial markets are suffering another round of tumult this morning after Israel launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its air defences, nuclear programme, and military leadership. As...
Volatility Surges as Israel Strikes Iran
12 June, 2025
The US dollar is surging against most of its major counterparts as Israel launches airstrikes on Iran, threatening to ignite a new war in the Middle East – still the origin of nearly a third of global...
Crosscurrents
11 June, 2025
• Mixed signals. Positive US CPI offset by lack of US/China trade progress. S&P500 dipped, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD also eased back.• Tariff impacts. Some signs of tariffs in US inflation....
Dollar Slips and Markets Rip Higher As Soft US Inflation Data Bolsters Rate Cut Bets
11 June, 2025
The US dollar is trading with a modestly weaker bias after fresh evidence that price pressures are moderating in the world’s largest economy reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin...
Currencies Calm Even As Pound Slumps On Labour Market Cooling
10 June, 2025
The greenback is edging higher against most of its advanced-economy counterparts, but traders remain cautious as they await tomorrow’s inflation release, Thursday’s long-dated Treasury auction, and any...

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